Erased
 

Hi Ted I went into the Cache Mngt and erased SA from yesterday
then opened up RDSS again and re entered my lines


Attachment 33860

Well, that looks better ...

If you find that these numbers change when you open the race a few more times in subsequent RDSS openings, or by adding and subtracting lines, please let me know. The fact that those odd numbers could even occur (and not only in this one race) is troubling.

Ted

Thanks guys. I actually made the mistake of overvaluing a non-downhill line today.

The second race at SA tomorrow has the same issue. RDSS shows the top two BLBL as non downhill lines. I eliminated them on pace anyways, but was confused as to why they were shown as the winner. I will post the race when I get home tonight.

SA 6.27.14 Race 2
 

Here is the race I was referring to.

Notice the horses where we are using a downhill line.

#6... was 5 lengths off a 1:09.7 last time out. Probably not close enough.
Attachment 37913

#2... notice no 1:09 or 1:10
Attachment 37912

Here is what the analysis looks like without the #6 and the #2
Attachment 37914

The race is in an hour and a half... so if non of yll get back, I understand.

I don't like the 2.5/1 that the #7 has. I think it will probably be close to 9/5 at post time. I will likely use the 7/3 and maybe the 6 as well in the exacta... as I like the odds on the 6 and I think it has a shot to finish underneath.

First, I acknowledge that this post is made after the race was run, so my comments are meant to be taken in general and not this specific case.

Generally speaking you want horses that have run on this course before. Routers that ran fast as E or EP (or even Pressers that gained lengths from close up) also can be considered as long as their adjusted SRs equal or exceed that of the runners from previous 6.5 down the hill turf races at SA. by fast I mean 109 or 110 six furlong splits in mile races or longer.

Also, for some reason, the adjusted SRs (ASR) of horses who have run on the course are about 7 or 8 points LOWER than for horses that have run on flat 6 furlong tracks (like the old Hollywood races), so the today's race using dirt lines of horses with ASRs of 80 and 79 vs SA 6.5 turf lines of 80 and 79 is really like comparing horses with ASRs of 86 or 87 (in the case of an 80 6.5 turf SA line). Horses with dirt ASRs of 80 are seriously disadvantaged vs the runners with ASRs from SA's turf course. Just for reference, horses that get ASRs of 80 or higher from the SA down the hill sprint course are fairly rare.

Conversely, when the only turf lines are sprint lines from the downhill turf course you can consider as contenders in longer races those horses with relatively (to the field) exceptional late pace numbers (LP) on the early - late graph. The down the hill lines do not project well so this is the only clue that I have found that might point to a horse that can successfully stretch out.

Bill