6 horse wins here at 9-2 which was top TPR and 2nd on sort

7 horse went off 25-1


An easy way to play this would have been box 3,6,7 which would have
gotten you a 165.00 exacta


But I had to throw out 7 because odds were too high


These same dumb mistakes will eat your bankroll up in a hurry

I had the 1 horse in a big contest on Derby Wars last weekend (my 2nd pick). I thought he would be about 15-1 and it was the second race of a twelve race contest.

With about a minute to post, I noticed he drifted up to 50-1. My top pick was 9-2. With 10 seconds left, I switched off to my top pick. The 1 won like a 3-5 shot and paid over $100 to win. I was sick about it. Still am. BTW, I finished 9th in the contest (they paid top 8) and with the 1 horse I would have won the contest. It paid $4,000 to the winner.

Long story short. I let the long odds adversely affect my decision making. I rarely do that as I tend to gravitate to longer odds in most contests. After years of playing and knowing better, I realize that I am still susceptible to these psychological shortcomings.

Try not to beat yourself up Jeff. It happens to all of us. As for me, I took the week off on all money contests as my mind is not right after this boneheaded move on my part. Thought I would share. Hope I did not bore anyone too bad.

Jim

Jim,

I think if that happened to me I would have jumped out of a window,sorry
that it happened to you.

Also that story did not bore me at all, Im glad you responded.

Happy Holidays again

Jeff

Just a note about TPR ratings dont just look at the total but how
the horses got it.

Jim,

You seem to fare very well in contests, hope you win the big one
someday.


Jeff

Playing wins on horse is a negative way long term
 

Over 50 yrs and more no one can come up with any answers about why do we look for winners and try to make a profit by betting on wins only or picks 123456
all winners no profit. I think this is a negative way to handicap horse racing to make a profit,i think the best way to make a profit or ROI is to play tri and super .ask any horse player how much time you went to the IRS window per year O for me. how about you or ask any horse player the same question.

Jeff,
just because your horse is a 25-1 you shouldn't pass on him. If was in your top numbers you should have bet him. How many time we talked about this little negative of your.

Me too Jeff. But with each passing year that is looking less likely. Appreciate the support. Hope you have a Happy Holiday as well.

Jim

Jeff review
 

Hi Jeff

Here per your email
are some KGEN readouts in regards to what I showed in the video.

TPRace2 3 year old up non winner 2 races in 1 year
CL5000
races less than 4000 not counted in conditiond

Life and 2012 records
H1 4-29 and 1-10
H2 7-57 and 1-8 EP3
H3 8-57 and 1-9 E/EP5
H4 8-46 and 1-7 EP7
H5 6-25 and 1-8 U
H6 3-22 and 1-11 EP4
H7 7-46 and 1-10 P1
H8 3-21 and 1-12 EP4

Pacelines
H1 No line
H2 line 1 Muddy but I'm looking at its early
position
H3 Line 1
H4 Line 1
H5 No line
H6 Line 1 is a (+) and its first try at TP current meet against open 5000 claimers it was within 2 on the turn
H7 Line 2 Line 1 first try at this condition
after the NW1-y win Line 1 is a (+)
H8 Line 1

contenders 6 8 3 4 and 7
positions RS
6 EP Has passed horses in the stretch
8 EP Never passed horses in the stretch
3 EP Has passed horses in the stretch
4 EP has passed horses in the stretch
7 P has passed horses in the stretch

No NTL E or SUS types !!

Into KGEN

The 6, 8, and 4 are EARLY
the 3 is EP the 7 is S/P

The top 2 on the exdc line graphs have a good chance
because the 3 is a early horse and the 8 6 and 4 break faster
Attachment 33046

The blocks are common to what RDSS shows by segments
F1= The 8 6 and 4 are close and lead the 3 and 7 by a big amount
TT = The 8 and 6 break away on the turn -goodbye 3 and 4
FF = The 7 wins the third fraction but 16 is close behind
with its advantage in F1 and TT the 6 will be tough.
Attachment 33047

Thoromation has the 6 winning
Attachment 33048

Pino,

You are right


Bill,

Nice job showing race KGEN