So question about 20 race cycles Are these 20 races handicapped or 20 races handicapped and bet? Do you include passed races in the 20 races?

I'm not after just winners, I'm after the best horse. If its the best horse it than becomes a key to hit other bets such as EX DD etc. I'm not hiding it, or playing a horse just because it has better odds. I'm after the best horse and it isn't only the favorite, it can be the 2nd.3rd or 4th horse if my analysis places it number 1 for me.


Mitch44

So I'm continuing reading through the latest follow ups as well as searching up topics here on paceandcap. Maybe I just haven't gotten to the appropriate follow up yet. But, can someone explain Tiers to me in relation to the BL/BL. I understand that it is not meant to be a ranking system, but I'm still confused on how it IS a tier system.

Kevin

I've done it both ways. Haven't done one in awhile but if I was trying something new, I would do a cycle or two with just "paper" bets. When I was comfortable with what I was doing, I would bet real money. Initially I included passed races but eventually left those out. For me, the actual record keeping was the most beneficial thing. Even with paper bets, it will really build your confidence. I still keep records (boy, do I keep records!) but the format is tailored to the way I play now, which is mostly vertical exotics.

For all practical purposes, it's really just a ranking. Frankly, I never understood the distinction either.

Re 'tiers', don't worry about the term. If there are tied ranks (e.g. 2 rank #1s, or 2 rank #2s) treat them as equal. If a co-equal ranked BL rating, or VDC rating, or Rx3 any other rating for that matter, offers better odds than the another co-equal ranked rating - accept the gift from the betting public. More so if you can make a case for vulnerability in one of those co-equal ranked factors (per the other thread you resurrected today :)).

To be fair to Sartin re the term 'tiers', I think the foregoing comments re co-equal ranks might be a hint to his original thinking, perhaps especially re VDC tied ranks or 'tiers'. In a sporting league or in groups of racetracks, there are groups of teams or tracks which are roughly equal and those others which are clearly unequal, clearly in a 'different league' or cohort or 'tier'. Though the BL/BL screen is sorted by BL rank, there may be multiple VDC rank #1s (by design). If one of those VDC rank #1s has a corresponding BL rank noticeably lower than the same rank #1, then those 2 horses are in the same #1 VDC 'tier' or group despite not being of the same BL/BL rank. For example, VDC co-rank #1 but BL/BL rank 3 or 4.

We have an affectionate name for these 'out-of-order' VDC tied ranks - the so-called 'Binder improver' after our late founder Bill V (aka 'Binder'). Often the co-equal (co-tiered) VDC rank #1 (or could be tied rank #2s) is at better odds thus more interesting to include in a bet, Win or exotic. It earns its higher than BL VDC rank because of the extra 'deceleration' secret-sauce included in V/DC (Velocity relative to Deceleration, tempered by BL).

So - tiers of tied-rank factors wherever found but particularly re BL/BL, VDC, Rx+ screen factors: give them equal consideration (or, conversely, ignore them at a potential loss of betting opportunity).

Ted

Thinking of 'newbie' questions, and the foregoing discussions re Methodology factors and their relative value, and also re ties, and from another discussion I've been having privately over the past several days, here is a link to an excerpt article from a couple of Follow Ups written in the late 1990's by mark Cramer - one of horse racing's 'luminary authors'.

Mark writes about his research using the form of BL/BL (Bottom Line / Betting Line) available in Sartin software at the time and how he fared following 'the rules' given by Sartin. (He profited and donated the winnings to a monastic order!).

BL/BL was later added to a subsequent deceleration formula (=V/DC). Later still (last 5 years with RDSS), VDC (including its BL/BL heritage) gets added into CSR and some external (thus non-correlated to pace) ratings like public Morning Line, BRIS ProfitLine and Prime Power, plus internal an non-pace, non-line-dependant Class Rating (CR+) and a positional Early/Late speed tendency formula (EL+) to become the array of newer Rx factors (Rx1,2,3).

It all began with BL/BL, which in turn came from still earlier Phase III/Modern Pace Handicapping ratings and TPR ratings (Total Pace Ratings). Aka evolution ...

Mark Cramer's BL/BL articles from Follow Ups 69 and 70: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6229

Ted

Ok another question about paceline selection. Lets say you have a 6.5f dirt race. What do you do if a horse (or horses) doesn't have a comparable. For example, all of its' previous dirt races are routes and all of its' previous sprints are on the turf. Is it better to pick a line with common distance but wrong surface or common surface but wrong distance?

Doc said if you take a route line against sprinters to make sure the router has a comparable 6f fraction that make it as fast as the sprinters. Paraphrasing but that's the gist. Personally, I never mix dirt and turf.

kev:


One size here doesn't fit all. In your example 6.5 F race, I would be extremely interested in how it handled the route races on the same surface, if it handles it well it tells me the surface is not a problem. As far as distance it also depends on how it handled those internal fractions of those route races.


I find distance is more important than surface, I may use the 6F turf or the dirt route, that's not a cop out. It really depends on what I'm seeing and without an actual visual I can't answer your question. If you put it up I'll do that . Of course someone else may disagree.


Horses run slower in route races so looking for a competitive internal time of other sprinters in the race is not the answer. An internal time in a route race must be adjusted.

Another question; is the horse even a contender?


Because of how races are written etc., horses don't always fit into a one rule or one guideline fits all. Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw said; "You must you what's there."


Mitch44