Disagree
 

Hi Pook

The 7 might have form issues, This was the only 3 year old in the race
3 year olds are still developing and can have wild variations in race ability.

In race 1 against 7500 claimers N2-L 8 days ago it broke last
Here is the the thing, it was a fresh horse after a 30 day layoff
against a slower POR Also what changed from line 2 to line 1?
In every other race except line 8 it broke well. Yet now in two races in a row He breaks last !

Lets look at horse 6 , - forget horse 9 Its a early but even the connections know it' only hope is to wire a slow field

But lets look at horse 6 He is a 5 year old gelding This is a fully developed horse, Since its been off 149 days , We have to ask "is this the same horse "
Well lets not use the last line, since this is the race that put it into the barn
look at the second line, Against CL20000 horses it broke just fine and
took the lead The POR in this race was 170 In horse 7's win the POR was only 168

What I'm saying is the 7 went from 15000 to 7500 and was claimed
but why the big drop from line 2 to 1? and did the line 1 race take too much out of him and was eight days rest enough to heal ?

I have not seen a replay yet and I did not watch the race
But even the chart says all broke well except the 7

I don't think this was a case of velocity match up , I think the 7 was
not right

Thanks
Bill

wp
 

thanks Mitch

Hi Bill,

Thanks for your well thought out response. And I don't mean to belabour this but you really don't think it could be velocity based? What you wrote about above is probably true but I looked at it from raw numbers only. The 7 was compromised when he found himself 1 1/2 lengths back of a 44.9 half. None of the early horses had ever run that fast but because of the intensity set themselves up for failure. All three ran last. I think even if the 7 had none of the issues you mention above he couldn't have succeeded against 44.9. I just thought the matchup worked out perfectly.

Pook