Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   2014 Layoff & Paceline discussion (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9899)

sureshotlink 07-25-2014 04:15 PM

I can imagine!
 
I attended brohamer and Quinn's Saturday classes for 3 str8 months. Although around that time frame brohamer was teaching more of the quirin pace and speed figure handicapping. The basic handicapping acknowledge and understanding I learned from tom was priceless!

This 2 guy's are responsible for laying the foundation for several of the west coast " young guns" who seem to be at the top of the leaderboard for most major handicapping tourneys.

Paul link

Ryan.p.coli 07-26-2014 12:56 AM

Paul-

Does Brohamer still participate in handicapping tournaments?

It sounds like you know your way around the west coast tracks...

sureshotlink 07-26-2014 02:14 AM

Before his time!
 
Ryan,

I am pretty sure tom would have an excellent tourney player. Tourneys were not very popular during his heyday. Perhaps tom takes part in golfing tourneys.


Paul

Hoof 11 07-26-2014 01:36 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Here's a couple of layoff horses in the 1st at Woodbine today (2 & 7). Personally i am tossing both of them, but the consensus is they are both contenders.

Ryan.p.coli 07-26-2014 01:43 PM

Hoof-

I would be gladly tossing her as well (and hoping the public bet her down to 3/1). You're looking at a 5 year old filly that has never won a race and is coming off a 240 day layoff. I have no interest betting on horses like that- but then again, I try to avoid maiden races as much as possible.

Hoof 11 07-26-2014 01:56 PM

The 2 is at 4.5/1

The 7 is at 10/1, i wouldn't be surprised if this filly places.

I went with the 4-11-12 in my P3 selections.

Hoof 11 07-26-2014 02:10 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Exception to the rule.

Bill V. 07-26-2014 02:26 PM

distance
 
Hello Hoof

Interesting example .
Some distance like 5 furlongs and races for maidens may produce more
layoff winners than others. Tracks that run year around may have less long layoff horses than tracks who take time off.

Here is something I checked based on your example horse.

At Parx I only have 65 total races in my data base for the 5 furlong distance

Of those 65 races there have been 9 winners from a over 90 day layoff ! The average days since last race for the winning horse in those 65 races is 47 days.
Now also from Parx, lets take another distance and restriction.
In 86 races for older 3+ females non maidens at the mile and 70 yards distance there has only been 1 winner off over 90 days.
The average days since last race for these 86 races is 29 days

Bill

Ryan.p.coli 07-26-2014 02:40 PM

Bill-

That is an interesting piece of info. I'm going to have to do some maiden specific layoff analysis.

Hoof-

I can't say enough about how much I dislike maiden races. There's not enough data and too much variance. The only time I'll ever pay attention to a maiden race, is when I have to in a horizontal wager. Even then, I do my analysis, but I supplement with another handicapper's opinion (Specifically, Bruno DeJulio if possible- he's a wizard with the babies).

Hoof 11 07-26-2014 02:44 PM

It was a field of garbage, this doesn't surprise me at this distance and class drop like you pointed out. Sometimes you gamble and lose

This time of year i normally toss anything over 90 days, but seeing that Woodbine has such a long season, when you get into the fall you want to key in on horses's with long layoffs, they hit the board constantly.


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