Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BJennet (Post 64020)

Charles,

Agree also with your comments on not 'hiding', preferring to use my own judgement. I think this must have worked well when Doc Sartin first came up with the idea, and probably for a decade or so afterward, but the assumption that there will always be a sufficient supply of horses at long enough odds to offset losses on low-priced favorites no longer applies in today's much tougher mutuel price environment. Being selective really is crucial.

Best of luck with your research and parimutuel investments, although I think you hardly need it.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Thank you for the compliment, but I must tip my hat back to you as you've given me much to chew on.

My reason for keeping the favorites in was to "legitimize"the results.

For example, I show FW as the strongest factor on the IDT at 6 furlongs this season. 45% of the winners I have charted ranked first in this factor.

While there are a number at $5.00 or less, there is also quite a number of them paying $8.00 or better.

EP is the second highest, producing 39% winners at 6 furlongs. So, when I come across a horse that is top ranked in both, I can presume it's a legit candidate to have its picture taken. All I need is for the odds to be satisfactory. Even an 8/5 horse can be an overlay if the rankings match up well with my tracking., but generally I look for 5/2 or better.

Sure, I can go a couple of days without wagering, but it's a winning feeling to not watch my bankroll erode.

I go through the rankings looking for strong combos, and will now add TE to the list. I'll start compiling that on Tuesday and Wednesday, the dark days this week.

A perfect example of the above procedure occurred in the seventh at AQU.

I said above that EP and FW top-ranked horses were winning at relatively high rates on the IDT at 6 furlongs.

Here's a case where a horse came in as top-rated in both categories and won at $20.20 (yes, I had it - my first wager since the bomb of the other day):

Note:

Elusive Gift in the eighth at AQU is not only #1 in EPR and FW, but TE as well.

But, as it's likely to be 2/1 by post time, I'll pass. It's 5/2 now, but there are 7 minutes left. Had I not just scored, I probably would go for it.

Nice win....I tried for the big enchalada, instead made a small profit from the win. The exotic didn't pan out. I found two others at Aqu and came up with nothing. Many times you pay a price to bet exotics, and I'm aware that it's not for everyone.

COMPLETED: 09157399868197 AQU #7 $0.5 Superfecta 1,3,WT,1,3,WT,4,WT,2,5,6,7,8 <none> $ 5.00 $ 0.00 - $ 5.00
COMPLETED: 76291421846758 AQU #7 $0.5 Superfecta 1,3,WT,4,WT,1,3,WT,2,5,6,7,8 <none> $ 5.00 $ 0.00 - $ 5.00
COMPLETED: 75685322851953 AQU #7 $2 WP 3 <none> $ 4.00 $ 29.10 + $ 25.10

Regards,
Chris

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris (Post 64095)

Thanks Chris.

Once in a while, I may go for an exacta, but only when I have a short priced horse and pair him up in order to hopefully maximize the potential.

I've made four exacta bets in the last two years and cashed in on two of them. Neither of them paid more than $16.00.

Eventually I'll probably set aside a separate fund for exactas, but right now it would only cloud my focus and I'm quite pleased with the way things are going.