Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

- Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=9)

- - H.A.N.A. Mnr 2nd race (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5914)

Bill, the #2 adjustment was only for legitimate contenders, not the entire field. Look at that energy spread. I'm fairly certain using the #2 adjustment would be wrong in this case. Don't you agree?

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David (Post 57376)

Bill, the #2 adjustment was only for legitimate contenders, not the entire field. Look at that energy spread. I'm fairly certain using the #2 adjustment would be wrong in this case. Don't you agree?

Hi David

Yes I do. I will not enter a horse into Kgen unless I feel the horse is a contender. I pick my lines based on guidelines from the follow up
and manuals pertenant to the time of these programs.
Therefore when I am notified of the possiblity of the need for the 2 adjust
I always will use it. In my last 7 races using KGEN I have been asked
if I wanted to use the 2 adjust in 6 of those races I have used it and the winner was on the correct kgrah
(based on the first preplay screen) 5 times. I feel my contender and pace line skills are fine so I will use the 2 adjust when I have to

Now in this case I strickly was following FTL's request to enter his lines into
a software.

I was asked If I wanted to use the 2 adjust and I agreed
This is all base on FTL's lines

Bill

Hi

here are my lines I did this race Friday night
I missed the race by 1/2 hour so I was very mad

Using the last line for my contenders
here is the Engen
Attachment 17150

Here is the 2 adjust warning

Attachment 17151

Here are the Kgraphs adjusted

Attachment 17152
Attachment 17153
Here is the first Preplay screen The EXDC comes up first
The 5 in the top 2
Attachment 17154

Quote:

Originally Posted by For The Lead (Post 57374)

Mike, it seemed to me from your post that you ran this race through RDSS and used line 3 for the FIVE horse. What I was wondering was, did you use the same horses as I did and ALL the same lines as I did?

Thanks.

i didnt use rdss...match-up is eye balling it :cool:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57 (Post 57379)

i didnt use rdss...match-up is eye balling it :cool:

Thanks Mike, I understand matching. I guess I misread your post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 57378)

Hi

here are my lines I did this race Friday night
I missed the race by 1/2 hour so I was very mad

Using the last line for my contenders
here is the Engen

Thanks Bill. To me, this remains interesting. The difference is that you used the last line for the #5 horse and did not include the #1 and #7 horses. As a result, you get the EXDC screen first rather than the SP screen.

It seems to me, that although the total energy for the #1 and #7 horses is low, they are the pacemakers in this race as shown in the SP screen you first did for me. Also on that screen, the MP for the #2 horse shows it next to last. In fact, in the last race the #1 and #7 ran together and alternated the lead through the first two calls. By eliminating the #1 and #7, the #2 shows a clear lead (by default) on the EXDC and also as the winner, but my thought would be that this cannot be true with the #1 and #7 horses in the race.

Although you may throw out the #1 and #7 from the 'win' for having low total energy, they clearly effect the pace of the race AND the outcome as you have shown.