Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Spec or Val Mode? (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5491)

JimG 04-22-2009 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 52811)
Howard's instructions worked back in the late 90's when Val was issued and it continues to work today. Bill posted for all to see that he made a profit in 2008 for the full YEAR following Howard's instructions to a "T".

VERY few horse players can say the same thing.

:)

Amen.

Ted Craven 04-22-2009 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzz (Post 52810)
Ted,

Thanks for your in depth explanation of using BL/BL and VDC.

I have one question.

What do you mean by the designation " 4th+ BL/BLs " ?

Buzz

I meant merely 4th or worse on the BL/BL readout. In the above screen shot with 5 horses, the 4th ranked and 5th ranked horses on the BL/BL readout, the #1 and #4 respectively, would be 4th+ or worse. If 2 horses were tied in 3rd position and there were 5 horses, I'd consider the 5th horse as being in 4th position i.e. (4th tier, or 4th grouping).

Ted

Ted Craven 04-22-2009 08:06 AM

To summarize re using lines with final beaten lengths over 7.5:

1. when using Val4 mode, avoid them if possible, or use gingerly if you must. The variable length by fraction formulas in Validator can result in an overestimation of 3rd fraction energy (and thus the horse's true late effort) when the beaten lengths are too high. Doc's advice here was indeed well founded and well researched for the formulas he wanted to implement.

2. when using Spec160 mode (i.e. default mode), don't worry so much about higher final beaten lengths (do worry, though, whether such a line represents a dull effort in a pace and race run largely by other horses).

Ted


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