Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 111847)

Hi guys

Thanks for the deeper looking at the %BVD numbers

In testing, When I've had this situation, I have been doubling the shown % number and taking 10 points away from the total, as a penalty

So for race 8 today at Parx the winner Iggy Logo has two works in 21 days following a 40-day layoff
I have been rating horses like this as 78 + 78 -10 = 146 BVD
Now that I see that on days with less than 5 workouts there is no % number
So If a horse works on a day were not too many other horses work There should be no penalty right?

Thanks

Iggy won, He does pretty well after 30-40 day layoffs

Attachment 44302

Maybe another way to get confirmation that the second work was okay is to look at the SR rating. In this case a 93 where the %-rated first work was a 90. See also the works from farther back were in the mid 80's (SR wise).

In this case the lack of a lot of works at the distance would not be a concern. If the 2nd work had been 81-82 then perhaps a deduction from 2x the first might be more appropriate.

Bill