it has been working for years. For a long while I was one of those slavish adhering to the rules (total energy for one) and upon review, found this "hidden structure" that kept repeating. Epiphany time.

Nice work
Bill and Tompkins
good to see your work in action
Thanks
Bill

Lets Do It Again - Pha 10-21-06 (All Races)
 

Tompkins has contributed some very valuable information that should be explored by those that truly want to win.
In an effort to further prove his research, I've once again incorporated it into my method and the software that I use. Today, at PHA there are some sustained varigate type races that should prove to be interesting.
I can, and without hesitation, say that it works well on an early varigate.

As most of you know, I am a one horse win bettor.
The top horse would be my choice.
Here's todays PHA.

Race -1
1 - (2)
-------
2 - (4)
3 - (3)

Race -2
1 - (7)
-------
2 - (4)
3 - (1)

Race - 3
1 - (2)
-------
2 - (5)
3 - (4)

Race - 4
1 - (4)
-------
2 - (1)
3 - (2)

Race - 5
1 - (3)
-------
2 - (7)
3 - (5)

Race - 6
1 - (5)
-------
2 - (2)
3 - (1)

Race - 7
1 - (6)
-------
2 - (7)
3 - (2)

Race - 8
1 - (1)
-------
2 - (6)
3 - (2)

Race - 9
1 - (1)
-------
2 - (7)
3 - (4)
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soemtimes it just hard to believe
 

Passed this race for odds. But the internal structure of energy distribution comes to pass even better when it is wet. Look how this "bias" overwhelms total energy.

4th race - Fort Erie - October 21, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1A Cousin Pam 3.30 3.40 2.50
1 One Way Lady 3.30 3.40 2.50
4 Parisian Princess 5.60

$2 Triactor 1-4-5 39.30
$2 Exactor 1-4 16.20

another splizacta
 

7th race - Fort Erie - October 21, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Driving Ms Chelsea 7.30 4.50 3.20
6 Reputed Deeds 4.00 2.90
2 Dance Slightly 3.60

$2 Triactor 5-6-2 78.80
$2 Exactor 5-6 26.20

top two e/l's often finish one three

2 Out Of 9 At PHA For A Small Loss
 

Today we had 6 straight losses at PHA. WE finally won the 7th and 8th
race.
We wound up with 28% winners which resulted in a very small loss.

fron LONG experience with this angle, the 2nd best e/l often wins more than the top one, which often finishes third.

Brohammer ????
 

From what I am led to believe, this angle came from Tom Brohammer.
In fact, from what I observe, it is the total energy broken down into early and late pace.EXAMPLE 85 89 which indicates a late runner and would have a difference of -4. So indeed, there is a direct relationship between
the total energy and the difference numbers. If one were to use accurate speed points and accurate running styles, I believe they could get a better handle on this angle by eliminating horses whose running styles do not fit the specific race. By using the speed point and running style method you would involve yourself in lots of work because these numbers have to be as accurate as possible. I can say without any hesitation, that there is no software or data supplier that can support
these speed points and running styles in a truly accurate manner.
For the most part, when a race sets up early, an early type will win and visa versa.
There is a progam that was endorsed or written by Brohammer called MPH that has the early and late pace broken down by energy. This program also takes the Trackmaster files but they have to be converted to a DRF file through a program called Axlate which for the most part will not run if you have a Windows XP operating system.

As for todays PHA, I kept a tally of first, second and third choices.
First choice won twice out of 9 races for about 22% (I stand corrected)
I originally posted 28%.
Second choice won only once for 9 %
Third choice was best and won 3 times 33%
The total top three choices won 70% of the time.

28 -33% on single horse picks that win is the goal I try to achieve.

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Me
 

Hey Guys,
Look this board is kind of my dream of a Follow Up for
today. The follow Ups we all hopefully read are full of methods
sent in by clients. Doc would print them.
If they work for you thats the main important thing.
However you must realize that everyone picks contenders and pace
lines differently

I do two things with this method's posted screen shots and posted payoffs

First I look at the winners price.
Second I look at the total energy readout
When I see for example $7.00 horses with total energys rankings higher than 5 and horses with 2 or 3 lines with lower total energy
I know something is odd
If I see something I will check the pace lines that were used in the screen shot.
Tompkins uses many lines for each horse and uses what he wants.
Many times I disagree with theses lines, These are however not mine.
So I have no use for the method since I would most likely not
find myself rating a race with any method using these pacelines


gs
Bill

so
 

Don't use it then. I will keep posting how well it works, like HERE.

2nd race - Woodbine - October 22, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 L'Argent 17.20 7.00 4.80
7 Woodland 4.00 2.70
8 Run Justin Run 3.30

it is PROJECTING improving early speed and slips "in between" the lines of classic computer readouts.

ride the bias as long as it is there
 

3rd race - Woodbine - October 22, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 Biblical Times 13.80 6.30 4.20
1 Signals Inthe Wind 5.60 3.70
4 Just a Bluff 3.10

$2 Triactor 7-1-4 185.20
$2 Exactor 7-1 67.70

not surface specific either
 

5th race - Woodbine - October 22, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Arravale 11.50 6.20 4.30
8 Barancella (FR) 16.70 9.00
6 Naissance Royale (IRE) 6.90

$2 Triactor 3-8-6 2,282.00
$2 Exactor 3-8 233.30

bias time anyone?
 

6th race - Fort Erie - October 22, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 In Love in Seattle 7.80 4.80 3.70
1 Speedstorm 3.20 3.50
6 Aliflash 4.10

$2 Triactor 8-1-6 178.00
$2 Exactor 8-1 33.80

another "splitzacta"

when it works
 

it over-rides most all other considerations.
6th race - Woodbine - October 22, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Why Not Love 14.50 7.30 4.20
10 Piece of the Pie 27.90 13.10
12 Miss Rudy Pants 3.80

$2 Triactor 4-10-12 2,853.00 another "splitzacta"
$2 Exactor 4-10 460.40
$1 Superfecta 4-10-12-7 5,587.50


PHYSIOLOGICIALLY it makes a lot of sense: it far easier for a horse to exert energy to MAINTAIN a position more than OVERTAKE it that late in an exertion.

since he is not privy to this calcuation how could it have come from the gentleman? I would like to see the source on that belief. Quote it to me.

still going and made better by the rain.
10th race - Fort Erie - October 22, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Final Pride 19.70 9.00 4.90
1 Charge Me 2.80 2.20
5 News At Noon 3.90

$2 Triactor 3-1-5 280.10
$2 Daily Double 3-3 115.50
$2 Exactor 3-1 57.30


this time it is a TOPzacta.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tompkins (Post 12840) since he is not privy to this calcuation how could it have come from the gentleman? I would like to see the source on that belief. Quote it to me.

I am not trying to disprove your work. In fact, I appreciate your efforts.
All I'm saying is that I've seen something to this effect in "The Pace Makes The Race". I no longer have the book, so I can't quote you verbatem.
Even if you adapted some of his theory, You own whatever method you derived and concluded from it and if it works for you then don't fix it.
If it works for you, all good and well.
It certainly works for me and for that, I thank you for bringing it to my attention.

You seem to be very defensive in your response to other members and for what reason is beyond me.
It is not my purpose in life to be an antagonist or be condescending.
If I agree or disagree with you is a mute point.
However, I have derived some useful information from your posts.
I am here to learn from and with people I consider to be friends.

I appreciate your comments. It is obvious you are not up to speed on my history here.

gaskets
 

very well said Bill
you are a gentleman and a winner

Respect The Thoughts And Feelings Of Others
 

I believe that everyone is entitled to their opinion and this is also what makes handicapping a great and challenging pastime.
We must respect each others opinion, whether or not it conforms to to your way of thinking, the methodology or whatever.
This board was created with an open format.
Let's keep it that way.
Let's not surpress the thoughts and ideas of others.
Lets not belittle each other.
New ideas and concepts are healthy.
If they do not conform to the rules of the FU's and the Methodology then so be it.
Maybe the rules need updating or in fact were not valid in the first place.
The proof is in the pudding and besides, it is my personal belief that some rules were meant to be broken.:D
The freedom of speech free thought is my first amendment.

Bill,
much of what you mention is in line with the way I view and use the methodology. I respect the fact that alot of things still work today that are 20 plus years old, and on the other side of the coin, I also understand many things are dated so use with caution. To be open is also to be willing to change, and to be going in a forward direction. The problem I have with dated programs and thought is the data is not what it once was. I have done side by side and viewed that trackmaster was more correct on this race, and the next race bris has the upper hand. Everyone can find something that works consistantly for some races and hone in on it as I think we all do in our own ways. But I really do not thing anything will ever replace the ability to read the form like a pro, and to pick winners without a computer occassionally if you had to.

Buy three Forms a year: B.C., Horse of the year, Kentucky Derby. Rest of the time the data does it.

Things seem to work well at the Meadowlands:
If you look at the charts that "Tompkins" posted,
which seems to be a great angle when applied with
the correct contenders and software.
It's not very difficult to understand.

Lots of scratches tonight but the in the first 2 races that were untouched
we had the winner. Two more races to go. Races 5 & 9.

Race -1.......(#2) at 5-1 ML Won and paid $ 6.80

Race -2.......(#5) at 6-1 ML Selection was Scratched

Race -3.......(#3) at 8-5 ML Won and paid $ 4.20

Race -4.......(#9) at 4-1 ML Selection was Scratched

Race -5.......(#1) at 5-1 ML

Race -6.......(#4) at 5-2 ML Selection was Scratched

Race -7.......(#3) at 4-1 ML Selection was Scratched

Race -8.......(#6) at 8-1 ML Selection was Scratched

Race -9.......(#5) at 7-2 ML

keeps on a goin'
 

2nd race - Woodbine - October 28, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 Bridled Jet 10.70 4.50 3.10
4 Algonquin Highland 2.60 2.40
2 Jeanne's Knight 3.70

$2 Triactor 7-4-2 122.20
$2 Daily Double 2-7 39.80

amazing when it is going
 

3rd race - Woodbine - October 28, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
3 Grandy's Glory 30.10 11.90 6.10
1 Saskawea 6.90 3.90
4 Dashingalltheway 3.60

$2 Triactor 3-1-4 996.90
$2 Exactor 3-1 155.50

with the big favorite out, the exotics were huge

hard to believe
 

4th race - Woodbine - October 28, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 Dark and Dangerous 20.70 10.10 5.30
2 Sister Elegance 18.00 9.20
5 Fortunate Heart 3.40

$2 Triactor 7-2-5 1,231.40
$2 Exactor 7-2 274.30

better get on the bandwagon while it is still there
 

9th race - Woodbine - October 28, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 El Gran Ron 12.10 5.70 3.60
1 One More Day 5.30 2.90
9 Struck Again 2.50

$2 Triactor 4-1-9 175.70
$2 Daily Double 10-4 51.80
$2 Exactor 4-1 56.20

keeps on a clicking
 

7th race - Fort Erie - October 31, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Fairwell Madrid 40.60 16.70 8.10
12 Chickenonastikbaby 6.40 4.00
8 Celtic Ride 2.90

$2 Triactor 4-12-8 1,044.50
$2 Exactor 4-12 224.90
$1 Superfecta 4-12-8-3 4,064.05

this one had a HIDDEN speed move within a route paceline and the longshot detector picked it up.