Mark is correct that an increase into more accurate times or accurate distances through Trakus would lower payoffs. However it would be nice if we could capture that before others or it became available to others.

Technology has been the biggest killer of prices, specifically the advance of computers. When we look at the future of things to come and the younger generations not becoming involved in racing the future of the game is bleak. However I believe it will survive by tracks unable to compete going out of business, racing only 5 days instead of 7 and perhaps shorter meets. Slots presently keep the game together for many tracks but even that has its limits. Nothing ever remains the same forever and things are forever changing.
Mitch44

Bill Lyster a great post for those unaware of Trakus. Trips are extremely important and why top jocks get the best horses. Cream rises to the top, or water seeks its own level. Top jocks stay out of trouble much more than lesser jocks.

If I were playing only one track Trakus would be in my arsenal, along with making my own numbers. I play many different tracks and love the success of simulcasting. Why limit yourself?

Again Bill thanks for the attached image. I can copy and paste but don't know how to snip or do these kind of posts. I'll have to learn this.

Mitch44

Beaten lengths: 1. In a previous post I stated the Doc used 2 foot per 1/2 F, Ted also said 4 foot per F or 8 foot per 2F same thing and in agreement. Most race increments are in 2F except 3rd Fr's which can vary. I went back and looked and the Doc used 1 foot for each 1/16 which comes out exactly the same but helps for some different increments such as the 3rd F of a 1 1/16 race. My information is from circa 1994 or so. Ted said in later programs the Doc used 8.3333. I wondered why as I probably would have used 8.5 because the average length of a horse is between 8 & 9 foot. I'm thinking perhaps it was a compromise in that fillies and mares generally are smaller than C & G and 3 yr. olds aren't yet fully developed so perhaps he split the difference which would make sense to me. Again as long as a consistent measurement is used in a math equation the results are consistent.

2. Bill V. made mention in an earlier post how he has little faith in the judgement of chart callers and makers as to their accuracy of beaten lengths. Years ago that was very true however the Doc said in some studies he did that they very uniformly incorrect so it made little difference. Some years ago I read an article in a racing publication(don't remember which one) on the job of chart callers and makers at the track. Things changed dramatically from the days of old. Chart makers now use a wide angle camera that takes a picture of the whole stretch, the photo is tripped at the finish line same as the photo finish except this is a photo stretch at the conclusion of a race. Afterwards the photo is quickly developed and a ruler is used to measure the finish of each horse and or Beaten Lengths. Nice advancement and accuracy.

3. I then wondered what was the measurement in feet they were using. so I contacted Equipbase. Equipbase provides the information for all services such as BRIS,TrackMaster etc. They returned my call and I spoke with Amy from the Customer Service Department and she new the answer right off and stated it was 8 foot. I think we can put to bed the accuracy of their charts and that we're all pretty much coordinated for accuracy and using accurate data.
Mitch44

Trackmaster
 

Hello Mitch

I thank you for all you have contributed to help us.

I have faith in the chart callers, You give excellent reasons why today
more than in the Doc/Pirco era.they are as good as can be made.
Actually I may have been unclear, I apologize, I think the data from the chart makers is okay, BUT
I have more of a problem with how Trackmaster fiddles with the speed rating and DTV. I posted about this once. How the DTV in a race made no sense,
I was told via Ted who went out of his way to help me, that Trackmaster told him they do something to make the daily track variant not only based on time and pars but, this is what blew my mind, by what should happen based on class !
From my understanding the people at TM think they can adjust based on
man made class. In my example the race was cheap maiden claimer or maybe a NW2. Anyway the winner of the race blew away the field,
TM made that race DTV a -9 and every other race that day -1
Track master told Ted that when more than a few horses run faster than they "normally" do they adjust the DTV for each race.
I at the time had every race from PARX charted for about 2 years. I proved that this was not the case in the race. i I proved that every other horse in the top 5 finishers ran less than par and the winner really just ran a very aberrant 3rd fraction, The connections saw this fast third fraction and entered the winner in a much higher class turf race following this wild win
The horse did nothing. I further kept track of all the other horses in the race with the -9 DTV. I waited via stable mail till all the horses ran again, This way I could see what speed rating they earned, Trackmaster was wrong here too.
Every other horse in the race ran par speed ratings

So I gave up looking too deep into what track master gives as far a speed ratings,
The good news is because of this I switched from looking at speed ratings
and adjustments, I switched to phase 1 and EPR and LPR ratings
and TPR so that has helped me win .

GS
Bill

Trackmaster variant
 

Bill,
I think Trackmaster is just a Cash Cow for Equibase. I guess they still maintain their HQ up in Mountain View but it just doesn't appear that they have any incentive improve.
Why do you see so many high fast variant horses win at decent to very good prices? Because people get scared off those lines or the software penalizes the hell out of the horse. I don't use the Trackmaster DTV but I do use the ITV. I figure it is harder for them to screw that up and generally I am happy with the result.
However, the entire theory behind Beyer's and all Speed figure makers is they just ignore early pace. My experience and some of the authors and greats have said for years "Pace makes the Race". This is not something of my concoction here lately. If the early pace is slow there is no way for the Sustained horses to make up that time especially after more than half the race has been run. Maybe I have seen a few 22 second final quarter mile races but there is a physical limit flesh and blood can giddy up at the end. Likewise, a fast early pace will allow a slower final fraction with a good final time. Pace scenario and early contention always has to be examined to determine the variegation so it plays into Match Up/ Sartin type analysis.
I can look at a paceline as I know you can and tell if it was fast early or slow. I don't need Trackmaster to tell me if the race was fast or slow. If there is a line in the horse's pps that is unusually fast as compared to the others then the "preponderance of evidence" dictum need be enforced. I don't know how many times Richie P said in the Hat Check Blog, The Hat did not use one line in his handicapping.
So there is a huge built-in error in those figures. I don't use them!!

I understand your point clearer now Bill. I'm a firm believer in track to track adjustments because of different track configuration and the composition of tracks differ widely. The daily trc. variant can change from race to race for many reasons, primarily maintenance and weather.

The only solution to this problem I can think of is to take the preponderance of evidence and create your own variant by averaging the Beyer, TM, Rac. Form and Bris. The Beyer can be determined by the speed rating given by what it should get on his scale of time, so forth. This would smooth it out to an average. Its one method overall and don't know if I'm all that crazy about it and the work involved. A computer program could fly through it. Or you just make your own.

If I can make one observation here it would be to not worry about a few exceptions. Your goal is to capture the majority and not worry about the few exceptions. The exceptions aren't the norm, you should be looking for parameters / range not absolutes. An example would be determining % Med. for a particular track and distance. You throw out the highs and lows (exceptions) and try to capture a range / majority not a specific number..

I believe most services do capture a range that supports our goal, therefore I have no problem with it. If you can find one or a day that you know is incorrect that's information the public lacks and you can take it to the bank. I also believe that pace is far superior to a speed rating.

An incident here or there etc. can become a mental block if we don't get past it and move on. Similar to doing a post mortem of a race lost. A great idea and if you find something take it as a lesson learned but to rework it too much can cause insanity as it may have no solution. E.g. the horse improved and only the connections know why, a change in feed or training that it responded to. You can dwell on it forever and never solve it. Some things are unsolvable.

Actually I'm more favorable to Bris SR over TM because I worked with them for many years and have more confidence in them. I believe the Racing Form is the only one not using class pars to determine variants but at $7.00 a pop? One form through can give you many days of variants extracted from it.

My experience with RDSS is that it compensates very well for these problem and you can lessen the impact by adjusting it if you want. The Doc always said that given an adjustment a player will take it. He mostly believed in using raw figures as you do with TPR. I'm sure he lost races from it but he captured the bulk and range. Another thing he also did was to not dwell on a lost and went on to the next race with and uncluttered open mind. With simulcasting and racing today I get over the exceptions fast.
Mitch44

It has come to my attention that the above phrase, and use of the term 'busted' might have approximately a 180 degree opposite meaning in American English than it often does in Canadian English, and I apologize for any misunderstandings.

I could have written: 'If I sound peeved, well -- you found me out, or, you caught me.' I meant: it is ME who is busted (my feelings revealed) - NOT that someone else who I was replying to is 'busted' or will be punished. (It never occurred to me). Au contraire - I believe it is important that we all support each other.

Private correspondence has clarified all, I hope. And, no longer peeved (whew!)

Take care, all!

Ted

I'd like to thank Howard Sartin, of righteous memory, Ted Craven and all those involved in the development and implementation of RDSS for today's winner and exacta in the Belmont Stakes! :cool: :13:

Congratulations Kevin! http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/i...smilies/43.gif

Perhaps you'd like to briefly explain your process in arriving at your winning Belmont bets? #2 Destin I got, but the winner #13 Creator was a bit more obscure (for me).

Ted

I
 

Did hit the Belmont Stakes race. As a few of the guys know when we had the fun Match-Up contest in 2015 the majority of my picks were Tandem races. No they don't hit all the time but you do get some nice bombs when they do. I used the Tandem race from Oaklawn Park on April 16. In which Creator,Gettysburg and Sudenbreakingnews came out of. in which i made win bets on all 3 because the odds dictated that i could. One of the first things i do when i handicap a race is look for Tandem races.

Bob

Phase1
 

Hi Ted

I just used grade 1 wins and places or grade 2 wins
I followed Doc's guidelines and never use the Kentucky Derby line

I had to use off tracks But I bet very lightly and it worked out
Also Doc mentions how unlike the Derby and Preakness, the Belmont usually favors horse on the early side of the E?L ( within reason)

My lines
Attachment 40832

TPR Phase 1

Attachment 40831

RDSS' Belmont Exacta
 

Given that I'm still relatively new to RDSS, I chose carefully the pacelines for all the horses in the race, then I let the program choose the rest. If I disagreed with a paceline chosen by RDSS I figured out what my own position was and went with it. I then found the results displayed here on the Segments and BL/BL screens, which I accepted and bet a $1 exacta box of the top four. I treated it strictly as an action bet to test the system, and in this case, it worked. Of course now I wish I had bet a much bigger exacta box!!

Thanks guys for all your workups. Congratulations to those who cashed in that race!
Ted