thxs pete

then give me the 8 & 2

I look for this race to run OTE. My final contenders are the 9 and the 2. I'll take the 9 as my top pick.

That 9 makes me wonder....

OK...hes 7 years old , has raced only 16 times and won 4....

I dont like that but just maybe hes coming in his own...

tough one to bet

Cornetto

1. P
2. P-EP
3. E 22-45.3 3 back; hasn't got lead in slower since
4. S
5. SCRATCH
6. SP
7. E 22.5 - 45.2
8. E/P
9. P, FPLR
10. E/P
11. E 22.6-45.2, tandem with 7 in last; needs open lead, can't get

Set Up Pace from the 7 at 22.5 - 45.2 - 110.6; has fought for lead and succeeded several times.

Could be crowded race early as there are at least 3 E's and 3 E/P's and 2 P's to contend with

1. Out

2. tandem with 7 in last; won 2 back from mid to back of pack (good today); comments seem to indicated rail trips IN

3. Best early could pressure the 7, but always fades; best early was 3 back OUT

4. Slow: OUT

6. Router cutting back with nothing to recommend OUT

8. Should press this pace from leader; does not need lead to win, but may have to run faster than last; but not if 7 gets some early eye-balling;

9. Pressed a faster pace in last; held distance behind at first two calls and made up ground and passed horses into stretch in last

10. Has broken first or second almost always; a real threat to pacesetting 7;
Has not won at projected pace but fought to half in 45.6 then faded

11. Tandemed with 7; needs lead; wants lead, can't win

I see 7-10-11 all hustling for the lead with the 8 close behind; with the 7 most likely to put away the other two early types;


7: 22.50 - 45.20 - (57.9-58.1) - 110.60

9: 22.30 - 45.00 - 57.10 - 109.80
3rd-3.5; 4th-3.5; 2nd-2.5

The 9 wins after the battle up front wastes the others; The 2 should be coming from a little farther back and if it avoids trouble its a good 2nd choice in case the 9 gets caught up in the early battle. I like the 9-2 exacta, but don't forget to box it

Bill

Retro look at the race
 

Looking at the setup for the race, it looks like I relied too much on the interim calls of the 7 at six furlongs. The 110.6 time on the lead was very much out of line as a repeat performance. When you look at the final time of that 7 furlong race, 124.5, and the fact that the 7 could not hold on to win while running a final fraction of 13.90 you can see that the six furlong time was not likely to be repeated with the number of potential front runners.

However, if you back off the final time by 6.4 you end up with 118.1 for 6.5 furlongs. today they ran 118.35

The winner in his previous route closed on a 111.80 to be only 2.5 off. The extraction would be 111.4 off by 1.25, with the final time estimated at 118.8. The winner was probably never going to be a top two contender, but with the big early mix of contenders and the PRICE you might have looked twice for a price! Also the 6 was positioned to be well off the early fractions. I did not..

first
 

The lone route horse did break well.
With all the early pace the 6 is there at the wire, wins at a big price

Thank you Bill l for the post race look and the numbers you calculated

Thank you so much for EVERYONE who joined in
We will get the next one !!

Really good stuff here Thank You

Bill V.
Vero Beach Fl

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