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You know, they use to say the same thing about Joe DiMaggio, every ball was hit right at him! :D

Undersand Match Up concepts or to give it's posh name, The Dynamics of Incremental Velocity and Energy Exertion and you understand which race dynamics favoured a horse and which may be did not.

This can then be used in future analysis as they were in this race.

This is making use of the repeating Patterns in a horses PP.or the horses "picture"


I will lay Eskendereya in KD and back elsewhere, if i think his "picture" does not fit into this race as he becomes a NON contender and bet him if it does as he then becomes a TRUE contender and my estimation of probability disagree with the markets.


It's not rocket science

Eskenderreya may have been visually impressive in Wood, but my analysis of fractions and final time suggest forgetaboutit.

He did what was needed to be done under a hand ride.He attends whatever pace is thrown at him and blows them away. He has yet to exert any real effort in his prep races. Legitimate Triple Crown candidate as any we have seen in recent years. Now when you factor in 20 horses and the potential for chaos it is a different story but throw the best 10 at him and he blows them away.

Eskendereya has not shown me he has the ability of Big Brown, Curlin, Street Sense, Rags To Riches or Rachel yet, i'm afraid, JMS.

I am not too forgiving in the Derby. An early horse who ran slow early and fast late is going to have to face a much faster pace come Derby day, and then they will have to sustain that an extra eighth a mile. No easy task, and we see every year well regarded horses looking for a bench at the top of the stretch.
And some head shakers waving good bye as they cruise into history! :rolleyes: