Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Martian Alert - Monday Hollywood

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- - Martian Alert - Monday Hollywood - Race 5 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5714)

Bill L.,
I agree with your statement, but a horse that cant finish the run is dubious bet. I can give the trainer that is shorting the distance today, that might give the horse a better chance to win. I think he will finish in the money, but not as a winner. I have been wrong many times, and if you invest in this horse as winner, I would like to be wrong one more time.
GL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 55072)

With at least 5 E's in the race and the 11 whose best form is as an EP,

Shouldn't we look to horses whose comfort zone at the first call is from between 5th to 7th and who still show a power moved to be near the lead at the stretch?

Bill
If you see the race as you described in first sentence above then YES you definitely want to look for horses from around 5th position 1c who run sharp against today's proj pace.

I wanted to make sure everyone had what race the FPLR is for todays race.

Guys I made a mistake. The FPLR belongs to the #5 El Adelanto TANDEM.

Look at the times

I see #9 and #12 as the LEADERS at 22.5 (maybe a tick or two quicker) who can sit 3rd/4th and overtake at 2c???

lbj:

I wasn't trying to talk up the case for the 11, more to talk it down because its best races seem to come from fairly close to hot paces.

My pick so far is the 10, Magna Cum Laude.

The 5.5 F distance of this race needs a more sustained type runner. Even tho this horse faded at 6F he was a factor to the stretch call power moving from 7-5-4, so he should be out of the early pace battle.

My 2nd horse is the 13, Razor Cut, but I like him less. Today's pace appears to make him a very sustained horse. Lines 1 and 8 (mdn win) show he made the lead at stretch call; maiden win position would be too close for today's expected pace, line 1 the stretch time wouldn't be competitive. His style suggests a move from 4th or 5th, but line 7 a decent run against something near today's pace shows no power move. Might be a place or show horse. Total energy wise either line 1 or 7 crushes this field, so I have to resolve conflicts between visual and the program's readouts.. When in doubt, bet two.

My OTE box is 10-11-13

Hi Bill

FWIW, this is what i see :

#13 - beaten off a 2c off 45 and change last 6 - OUT

#10 - Only win came against slower than todays Projected Pace, Tandem Loser to #11 last time - OUT

Bill L., CD
good selection
GL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D (Post 55062)

Looking for horses that can sit 3rd, 4th behind 1c 22.5 (maybe a tick or two quicker)

#1 and #11

Hello!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hollywood Park - Race 5 video replay
# Win Place Show
11 $8.00 $4.80 $3.80
1 . $7.60 $5.20
10 . . $4.40

Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | ALL
Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid
$1.00 Exacta 11-1 $33.70

Very nice race thank you to the matchers
I really enjoyed following along
Nice work Charlie :)