Simple:goes back to the basic idea of Pizzolla's FULCRUM: the horse that MADE of prompted the fastest pace being evaluated and then stayed around in the third fraction to some extent is the yardstick for all other comers to be compared to

The fulcrum
 

A fundamental idea that stays around because it works. The fastest
pace a horse faced or prompted, which was then still around (somewhat)
in the third fraction. Make THAT line one of the primary yardsticks
for the field provided the form cycle dictates that was an impoving
line not the 3rd or 4th back. Go back the second time through and find
horses that rank close to the top at the 2nd call as many of these are
improving and project a major improved performance today. You have to
always understand that often the race was essentially OVER at the 2nd
call and the rider did not push the animal after that so good 2nd call
projections have to be evaluated with that in mind.

I usually do not use the incremental deceleration evaluation in
sprints too often, unless to see how the energy distribution dictated
SOME 2nd fraction activity. In routes it is the key but less so in
sprints. One of the magic distributions that win all the time are
1-3-5 rankings in the deceleration windows. These types get out well,
hold their own enough in the second fraction to ward off many a middle
challenge and then the race is nearly over. It is a good sign in a
route as well.

I am really amazed at how often people forget that the 2nd call in
many routes is FURTHER into a race than a sprint: above 60% at 8.5
furlongs and 75% at a mile. First fraction speed with second fraction
support is the key to most winners on the dirt most days at most
tracks: LOOK FOR IT.

In sprints how important do you think the first fraction is.

Tim, thanks for your thoughts. I don't have time to digest them today but should by Sunday or Monday.

Tim, I also find the fulcrum a great way to forgive pace lines - if the pace was mush faster than what we project today, I can easily go past that line. TPR was very effective if you used the fulcrum part of it, IMHO. Using the furlcrum to pick pace lines kicked my game up a notch (BAM!) back in the day.

COUPLED with the second fraction it is relevant...By itself not so much as many a horse (I remember Pine Tree Lane and Arbmala High both running at Anita) can get out on TOP but just never stay there long with even the slightest of pace pressure. Another was the gallant old gelding Kissin' George that some idiot brought back to the races at NINE after his claim to fame of running eyeball to eyeball with Dr. Fager for four furlongs....Poor old guy still had his quickness but no longer had the legs as he broke out on top but was headed after 3 furlongs.

Without 2nd fraction suppor, the first fraction alone is almost meaningless.

The good
 

Thanks Guys This thread is what Pace and Cap IS !!!!!
I really appreciate the work you guys do.

Be The Best Of Whatever You Are

If you can't be a pine on the top of a hill
Be a scrub in the valley, but be the best little scrub on the side of the hill
Be a bush if you can't be a tree,
If you can't be a bush be a bit of the grass
And some highway happier make.
If you can't be a muskie, then just be a bass,
But the liveliest bass in the lake.
We can't all be captains, we've got to be crew,
There's something for all of us here.
There's big work to do and there's lesser work, too,
And the thing we must do is the near
If you can't be a highway, then just be a trail.
If you can't be the sun, be a star.
It isn't by size that you win or you fail.
Be the best of whatever you are.

Douglas Maloch

no better example
 

Saturday's Donn Handicap showed the winner had NOT only competed in increasingly more difficult races, but he had OVERCOME those pace challenges as compared to the field.

First the POH/POR then the match up