Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

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Bill
Here is what the BL/BL looked like before hiding to top 5 total energy and top 5 primary line score.

Btw I pick lines using the Perceptor rankings seen on the 2nd tab. it IS the HORSE you are looking at matched up against HIMSELF.

ok hope this helps and again THANK YOU:)

The winner is #2 paying 10/1

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 45406)

One of the keys especially in TODAYS racing is PATIENCE to WAIT til the stars align if you will. There is NO great calls made or sophisticated pace analysis here.

I think this just about captures it perfectly. There are some who feel the need to do 'split the atom' type handicapping. They just must play every carryover and restrict themselves to a single track, for example. They need the challenge of forcing winners out of races where a standout doesn't stand out at first glance. The end result is 4 picks per race and 5:1 payouts on pick 4's or pick 6's. Now, THAT's having an opinion.

With the variety available presently, a handicapper need only have the time and patience to look at many races and to ONLY bet on those where there is a clear standout. If you look at the cards for 5 or 6 tracks a day, something that's not very hard to do, you'll probably get at least 10 plays a day. More than enough action and more than enough stickouts.

To play when you don't have an advantage. Or to force plays where the advantage is not almost immediately obvious might be challenging but probably counterproductive at the end. I don't need to be very clever; just clever enough to notice the stickouts.

Thanks That is so important. The ability to download multi tracks
and pick your spots is a very valuable tool to winning in todays racing

Rich, thanks for showing the Sunland race The thing I like is
that you worked the race using the program just perectly
in the way Doc instructs in the follow up
slightly updated but like TFM says you don't need to split the atom.
Doc's guidelines work today...

This race and races like the "at the table with Bill" race
Just make me smile when I hear stufff like - Old ideas,
you need to come up with new ideas,... Doc sartin was this or that
bla bla bla .... If you really want to win at a good profit
Its all in Follow ups 80 - 88
Its will work Thanks Rich your Sundland race makes me say
As you and I say often "THERE IT IS "

GS
Bill

Exacta as Place Bet

Quote:

Originally Posted by tfm (Post 45403)

While there may be no rules in the mind of some, as we bet we develop methods of play based on experience. For example, I find myself playing longshots that seem to want to run 2nd (more often than than win). I have two possible ways of tackling this:

1) bet win and place --- I tried this for a while but found that I lost value in the long run

2) bet the horse to win and save with the horse 2nd in an exacta -- either under a horse I also like or, more often than not, under the favorite.

For example, today at TP, Sir Allahad, in race 5, was on my watch list. The horse was stretching from a sprint to a route but was 15:1 and well worth a bet. So, I bet to win and an exacta under the strong favorite (Maker's horse). $2 win and place gets me back $12.60 (for place). $2 win and $2 exacta gets me back $62.40. Not bad, considering the chalk was 8:5.

I find there's incredible value when you're able to narrow down the contenders.

In the cases where my opinion of the long shot (or otherwise) is very strong, and I have an opinion on another horse, I bet the long shot to win and box the exacta.

tfm- I like that strategy for exacta bets. I believe Mark Cramer called this The Exacta As A Place Bet. Good thread as Money Management has been a weak point in my game.