Learn from my mistakes.

1) Make sure that when you are projecting a pace 1c-2c that you are using a horse (s) who are ON THE LEAD at those calls. NOT 2-hd or 2-nk.

Hat would gruff at me "On the lead means what it says Rich".

As it turns out a member here "Tom" was told the same exact thing by Jim at a seminar. Tom's feedback on what Hat told him can be found here. It is post #113 in the thread.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...9425#post39425

Now if you can NOT proj a pace using that way fall back to Jim's 2nd way he lays out in his 5 step approach.

Third option is passing the race and there is nothing wrong with that man. It is hard enough to wager profitably on races we understand a bit. Let's not make it harder.

Excellent reminders of basicx
 

Maybe the 1st types of Lead horses to deal with: Early :

Wire-to-Wire :

1) 4--1---1---1---1 <------ 4th at the break call, can pass horses to get the lead. Still must be 1st at the 1st call.


NEED-TO-LEAD

2) 1--1---1---1---1 <------MUST be 1st out the gate, 1st at the break
call, and 1st at the 1st call......from gate to wire. CANNOT pass horses.

Not necessarily a rule, but something at the start to work from, evaluation.

VoodooFan

A picture from this horses Past Performance

Early 22.2 or slower who cannot win over todays distance of 6f

Not quite, but almost the kind of horse that gives me fits, makes handicapping longer.

Success as and Early and Other-Than-Early horse.

To get a solid picture of what this horse can do, you have to give him a M.O. profile, like a criminal.

He has success at being Early, Early Presser and Presser.

My problem would be to figure his comfort zone. Especially his race at the bottom.......I would have to chalk that up as either inexperience or he was challenged between the 1st and 2nd call.

As and Early, can win between a 22.2-22.9, but with the following stipulations:

At a 22.8 or faster, if he is challenged and fights, cannot win, as an Early.

At a 22.2 or slower, can win with 1/2 length comfort zone, if not challenged as an Early. Needs a easy trip without challenges.

As an Early, he must go gate to wire, Need-To-Lead, 1st at the break call.

Can fight for the lead and win as an Other-Than-Early at 23 or slower.

As an Other-Than-Early, can be a Presser and Sustained Presser with success.

So whether the race runs Early or Other-Than-Early, he has to be considered as a threat if the 1st call projection falls to his abilities.

In general, he has success at positions 1,2,3 and 4.

This is the kind of horse that makes me unsure, probably have some holes in my analysis of him, takes too long to figure out, depends on the other contenders in the race and whats he facing today.

VoodooFan

Pace was quicker than Projected, but #4's "picture" told us what would happen

Voodoo
Here are the screenshots of the 2 early horses in Charlie's race with ONLY their ON THE LEAD 1st call times and positions. That is what Hat wants man. Look at Tom's post and what Jim says.

Looking at the 1c fractions - the BREAK positions - 1c positions ONLY

Do you think one of them will win or will the winner be Ote? Hey it is also FINE to not know and PASS.

Mind's Eye - Early or Ote??

The fastest on the break is #-1, with two break positions at 21.7, 1st out the gate.

The fastest out the gate being 1st that the #-4 has is a 21.9. He can only be challenged and win as an Early horse in a 22.9

The #-4 needs to be 1st at the break call. The #-4 needs a 1/2 length comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.2, and the #-1 can also break 1st position and get the lead at the 1st call at a 22.2.

The #-4 has lost the race out the gate, will be challenged, and lose the rest of the race. (as an Early horse)

The #-1 needs a 2-1/2 comfort lead at the 1st call at a 22.3. The #-1 does not win fighting, and the fastest he can fight is 22.3.

The #-1 fades as an Other-Than-Early horse. The #-1 loses the entire race, he cannot win.

This race will run Other-Than-Early and the #-4 will have to be measured against the other OTE horses in the race.

I will be curious to find how right or off I was.

VoodooFan

I also noted you evaluated the 1st call in their maiden races.

I have not been doing that.....I thought this did'nt count.

Like evaluating a Triple A ball players performance, like he will have that SAME, duplicatable success in the Major Leagues.

What's the philosophy on that?

VoodooFan

That is what you are supposed to do :)


Great call as the race winner did run O.T.E. as you predicted and neither of the 2 horse shown hit the board.

Good job Voodoo. Here is the result chart

Ok let me keep my answer 100% Bradshaw please. Sometimes he would use them and other times he would not.

I am pretty sure he would tell you to trust your instincts for that horse in that race but I can NOT quote him on that please.

Not much help amigo. Sorry