You're right, this is a great thread, and I profited from it yesterday and hope to today.

I think the reason traditional handicappers (and some in the methodology) has been slow to catch on is that they have assumptions going back years that Keeneland is an early speed favoring track. It is still a speed favoring track, clocking amazing times, its just not favoring front runners.at this time.

I would like to insert a cautionary note here. This may not be entirely a characteristic of Polytrack and may not transfer to the surface at other locations. In addition to the new surface, Keeneland also widened the final turn, making it less of a bullring or hairpin configuration. They also added 100 feet to the final straightaway, making it 1235 feet, one of the longer ones among currently active tracks. Both of these changes should also lessen the advantage of early speed.

The lesson should be that as the new surface becomes more and more common, we are going to have to do as Richie has done and do our homework on the charts and our profiles and keep that information current for the track we're playing..

Dick

Dick,

I agree wholeheartedly that it is important not to make general assumptions about polytrack. But Keeneland has been a gold mine since fall of last year if you know what to look for.

I am hoping that Ted includes something like Richie has done here when the charts are incoorporated into RDSS. Rather than just the same ol' same ol' with modeling factors, it would be nice at a glance to see how the winner has performed over a set number of races and what the winner's call was at each point of the race. Saves the time of manually poring through charts and let's the computer do what it is good at, sorting and retrieving information.

Jim

4/12 - Winner's Positioning
 

Winning Positions
Sprints have 4 calls - 1f-2c-sc-fin
Routes have 5 calls - 1f-1c-2c-sc-fin

Sprints:
6-8-5-1
5-5-1-1
11-11-4-1 :eek:
3-1-1-1
5-7-5-1

Routes:
4-4-3-2-1
7-4-1-1-1

I hit a couple of decent winners and a place today for $45 an change. Here is my overall after today:

Your bankroll total is $120.20
You're currently ranked #300 in the entire contest.

Time to hit some long shots.

Jim

PS-How do you draw the lines and arrows into your screen shots

Jim
I just saw your above question. I am using screenhunter pro. Cost a couple of pennies more than the free one but there is a bit more you can do with it
:)
Richie

Richie:

VERY nice presentation of extremely interesting concept!

Gary

camtasia
 

just wait till Rich learns how to make videos with Camtasia !!:)

4/13 Winner's Positions
 

Winning Positions
Sprints have 4 calls - 1f-2c-sc-fin
Routes have 5 calls - 1f-1c-2c-sc-fin


Sprints:
4-4-3-1
2-1-1-1
4-3-3-1
6-7-3-1
7-6-2-1

Routes:
4-7-5-3-1
2-3-3-3-1

** Very subtle bias change imo**

Richie:

Finished 4th today in NHC Qualify contest and I give a lot of credit to the posts that you have made, especially in this section. Your logic expressed in this thread led me to a couple of very nice winners today. Thank you.

Gary Levin

WOW!

tremendous Gary. You are a super impressive player man. I hope you take the whole blasted thing down!

Really cool!
Richie