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-   Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=116)
-   -   Questions for LTI (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15737)

Jake 07-06-2023 12:56 PM

I haven't posted in a long, long time.

I'm curious. How does the 4 factors top 4 horses compare to just the top
4 morning line horses for win percentage? I can't see much difference.
Am I incorrect here?

Jake

Lt1 07-06-2023 02:01 PM

Hi Jake. Don't know the answer to that since I[and Richie as far as I know] never looked at that. It most likely would depend on what horses and pacelines the user plcks. If the user picks viable contenders and pacelines I would think many would be in the top 4 m/l favs
Tim

Jake 07-06-2023 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 151544)
Hi Jake. Don't know the answer to that since I[and Richie as far as I know] never looked at that. It most likely would depend on what horses and pacelines the user plcks. If the user picks viable contenders and pacelines I would think many would be in the top 4 m/l favs
Tim

Thanks for your thoughtful answer. I guess the better question, will the 4 factor method help focus on any potentially viable longshots, the LSP designation? Looking for longshots with a ML rank of 3rd-5th as potential contenders make sense to me, so will the 4 factors method bring anything extra to the handicapping table or not? Curious, because I have no clue.

Lt1 07-06-2023 03:50 PM

Hi Jake. Richie did discover a very good LSP angle. What you are looking for is a non-contender that ranks in the top 5 of both VDC & CSR. I have posted many races in the Races of Interest Section where the LSP either won or placed completing so very nice scores. The latest one was R8 @Parx on July 3rd. Screen shots are posted so you can see what the LSP looked like. Naturally the more corollary support the LSP has the better. Also remember that the public does overlook top 5 contenders which provides LSP plays. I have had many #2 & 3 tiered horses win and pay double digit prices.
Tim

Jake 07-06-2023 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 151546)
Hi Jake. Richie did discover a very good LSP angle. What you are looking for is a non-contender that ranks in the top 5 of both VDC & CSR. I have posted many races in the Races of Interest Section where the LSP either won or placed completing so very nice scores. The latest one was R8 @Parx on July 3rd. Screen shots are posted so you can see what the LSP looked like. Naturally the more corollary support the LSP has the better. Also remember that the public does overlook top 5 contenders which provides LSP plays. I have had many #2 & 3 tiered horses win and pay double digit prices.
Tim

Your graciousness is much appreciated. That's an added consideration to always
keep in mind. Thank you for the advice.

Jake

Lt1 07-06-2023 04:23 PM

Anytime Jake. I will try to answer any other question you may have.
Tim


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