Thanks
 

Thank you Mick and Charlie

Mick. As I mentioned in another thread
In my big spreadsheet with 1774 races, I get my RX1,RX2 and RX3
just about the same as yours 82 82 and 83 percent

In my "FTL" spreadsheet Which is only 90 races
This sheet has no maiden races and only races from
GP, TAM, PARX, PENN, OP, FG, SA, and GG,

I bet everyone of these races,

My top 4 RX1, 2, and 3 are doing real well
The RX3 is 93%

Bill

Attachment 45915

The King of Picking Pacelines
 

Bill, that is an astonishing stat! In Memphis, Elvis is the King. At Sartin Downs, you're the "King of Picking Pacelines". :D

Wow 93% that's outstanding Bill.
Tim

Nice work Bill, great stats.


Mitch44

Great work Bill
 

Someday I hope to be as good as you at picking pacelines.

Topic for discussion: when collecting data in a parimutuel game, I would suggest that tote-board public betting choices need to be tabulated as well. Like they say in poker, it's not how many pots you win, it's how big the pots are when you win. Similarly, when betting horses, we are betting AGAINST the computer robots and the syndicates, both of whom receive larger rebates than any individual, and have access to making multiple wagers at the bell. Remember, if someone in the betting pool is receiving a larger rebate than you are, you are effectively betting at a higher take-out.

Because of this structure, the closing tote odds are very efficient estimates of a horse's probability of winning. In fact, many of the large syndicates include the tote odds in their formulas to estimate win probabilities. Remember, we only want to make +EV bets (positive expected value), so we need a horse's odds to exceed its probability of winning. In the case of 2-horse betting, the net odds after adjusting for the losing bet and the dutch weightings must exceed the cumulative win probability of the 2 horse "group".

These days, favorites are winning at a close to 40%, and the top 2 favorites at closes to 60%. Contender selection needs to include price as well as percentages.

Bottom line, calculating win percentage without including the tote odds gives results that are not statistically significant. Sorry to pour cold water on all the hard work and analysis, but the analysis needs to be expanded. Thanks. Thoughts?

no cold water
 

hello Rdiam (name please):)

You bring up a good subject, We need to look into the future and
make the tote board a big piece of our battles against the whales.

I'm not 100% sure of what you would like to see,

Would you be interested in the mutual prices of all the winners who were in my top 4 RX3 ? in my analysis

Thanks
Bill

Bill:

We met last summer at Saratoga.

A few thoughts:

1. For your sample, show what percentage the tote favorite won, the second favorite, third favorite, and fourth, with a cumulative percentage. This can help show whether your Rx3/paceline selection is any improvement on what the "public" is able to do on the races you bet.

2. Calculate the average odds of your sample of winners selected. Here is why this is important: to simplify, let's say you can pick a winner 50% of the time, but the average odds on your winners is only 4/5. That is -EV. Conversely, let's say, my selection only wins 25% of the time, but my average odds are 4-1. That is +EV. But on the spreadsheet right now, by not including average odds, your 50% looks better than my 25%.

Hope this helps.

Richard

Hi
 

Hey Richard :)

Yes of course, now I remember, Hey I finally took your advice and updated my profile pic,

I will get going on those calculations.

Bill

Hi, Richard.

I'm driving to Hot Springs this morning and will think about your suggestion on the way. It may require exporting the data to Access but ... well, we'll see. You've made a valid point. Thank you.