Ok 10 is 7/5 3 min to post. Race should be passed but for the heck of it I'll go with 12 and 2. The 1 being bet pretty good for a 3yr l/o
Tim G

Take a shot here with 12-1-4 all have juicy odds.


Bob

Swing and a miss!
 

Strike three on a 80 mph changeup! #10 was much the best. Can't feel bad losing a wager to that.

Generally if I handicap a race I must play it even if $2. In this case when I went to bet race 7 wouldn't come up for select a race, only race 9. Called LT1 and he had no problem.
I decided to restart and that's when Windows decided to update.

By the time I got back in and after at least 20 minutes they were in the stretch. While the 10 was top choice, I never would have bet it based on the odds and the suspicious drop. I downgraded it from 1st rank to 3rd.

I ended up saving a couple of bucks and was shut out. I was going to bet $2 on the 1 & 2 in an ugly race. The 2 put B on two back and some keep on improving, he was improving and for theses cheap horses he had some impressive work outs. I was surprised they bet him down so much. I got off the 12 because he ran under these condition 4 or 5 times and failed to win.One gains a lot of information in looking the horses PP's.

I wonder if the 10 was claimed? Not a move I would make as a trainer.
Mitch44

Fancy Man was claimed
 

Trainer Victor Carrasco, Jr. shelled out the $5k to halter this one.

Looks like he got a bargain. If I were the owner I would not be a happy camper. Probably can repeat off the claim or at 6,500. No wonder the guy is only an 8% trainer.
Mitch44

Fastest Pace Last Race
 

Jim Bradshaw gave specific instructions about horses that ran against the fastest pace in their last race. They are very dangerous and if you can't find another horse that has run better in a similar distance race somewhere in their past performances - This is the horse to bet.
These numbers are adjusted: 100%DTV+ITV, 25/-25 range. I have been using that alot lately unless there are horses with huge positive or negative DTV.
By definition FPLR is normally taken from the exact distance, surface and track but he also says when you don't have a horse that went to the lead and finished well, you can use any fast sprint or route.I always select the last line because I want to see how everybody runs. Bill v does this as well but he uses TPR.
Attachment 43263
I highlighted the #10s 1st and 2nd call POR times. How many horses have any Blue or Green shading behind their times? Here is the Velocity POR screen:
Attachment 43264
This horse ran against the fastest early pace of all runners. But he is a Presser and wasn't in the lead.So let's look at the Velocity POH screen:
Attachment 43265
and the Segment screen:
Attachment 43266
So how do you fault this horse? He doesn't need the lead but he is faster than anyone in the race early and late. He's had two works since and had plenty of time to recuperate. He's run well off of longer freshenings. And it appears that the connections are desperate and they are dropping the horse. They are not taking any chances, they must have to pay the feed bill.
The only question is how low a price will you accept. And if that price is too short, maybe you can fashion an exotics ticket because you have all the evidence you need to know not to bet against this horse. The #9 is 3rd off a 122 day layoff who improved substantially 2nd back to last. The #2 shows a huge 2nd fraction move with a 58.2 fps fraction time and the 2nd best sprint final fraction. At 37/1 and 9/1 respectively you can trurn this 1/2 shot into some money.
I realize that this is redboarding but it is undeniable and I have no investment to crow or pontificate. I didn't see this race until I looked at the website tonight. I just hope this is helpful and presents possibly a different way to look at a race. RDSS2 is a very good program and answers many questions for the handicapper. But it is not a Blackbox and if you use it as one you will lack the confidence to really understand what is happening out on the track.
Good Luck

Mark I don't consider it redboarding when you are pointing things which can aid the members here. I like to see how various members approach races. All of us can benefit from the viewpoint of others. We are never so perfect that we can afford to overlook valuable information. Keep posting your approaches.
Tim G