Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

- Matchup Discussion (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=66)

- - The Derby as a Marathon Race (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10439)

I beg to differ kind sir. His last race he made a move leading up to far corner shifted way wide on turn kicked it in turning for home. Closed in 37.25 fastest of any derby hopefuls and it was his 1st distance race he ever won. I never saw a turfer make a move leading up to turn - only close to top of home stretch. Pedigree has turf and distance/stamina on dirt as well. Very impressive 1st distance race @ 9furlongs- watch film and you will see slow mile yes 1.38 but, had to pass horses back street , far turn and top of the Lane way wide the trip Not saying he would win just saying very impressive win and horse

Attached is the PP for Oscar Nominated. Note the number of horses passed and lengths gained.

One of Howard Sartin's guidelines for the Derby was to only consider horses that finished first or second in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races, and then to take the best sustained horses of those that qualify. ON's last race was a grade 3 and before that much lower races.

These last two posts broadly summarize the teachings of the two men that this site is dedicated to, Howard Sartin and Jim Bradshaw. Tomorrow May the 4th be with you. On Saturday good luck...

A couple of years ago, Dullahan looked much the same. See attached. Great races on poly and turf, but not when it counted...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 103651)

Dan and everyone else, I wrote this a year ago in support of The Hat's Marathon method:

"When this info was first posted in 2007 all 31 of the past Santa Anita Handicaps [run at 10 furlongs BTW] had been won by horses either first or 2nd at the stretch call. Since that time all 9 subsequent winners have been first or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call and 7 out of 9 were within 0.50 lengths of the lead at the mile call. One winner was 4th by 8 and the other was 6th by 4 lengths.

For the Derby, the original info was 41 out of 44 1st or 2nd at stretch call. Since then 7 of 8 were 1st or 2nd at the stretch call, one was 3rd by 1.5 Lengths (update info 48/52).

I was not the instigator of the 41/44 info, but I did go back as far as equibase allowed. In the last 24 Derbys (back to 1991) 20/24 were within 4.5 lengths at the mile call; 22/24 were either 1st or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call (or within 1.5 lengths). Giacomo and Grindstone were 6th, 2.75 and 4th by 3.5 lengths respectively, at their stretch calls.

Moral of the story is, if you are not on or near lead or in the process of passing a lot of horses you probably will not win the Derby. Deep closers from races with slow mile times are candidates for other than win."

Deviate from these statistics at your own peril...

Bill L.,

You can probably go back to 1984 to pad those stats so we can add 7 more years; or the last 31 Derbies . I did not get enough information for 1983 for Gato Del Sol as I am sure this was a closer with Eddie Delahoussaye aboard.

1990- Unbridled- trainer Carl Nafzger famously telling owner Frances Gentry that she is going to win the Kentucky Derby

1989- Sunday Silence- famous stretch duel with Easy Goer

1988- Winning Colors - won gate to wire

1987- Alysheba- Alysheba was within a half-length of Bet Twice before that infamous incident of jockey Chris McCarron almost falling off his mount after Alysheba clipped heels with Bet Twice.

1986- Ferdinand- Ferdinand and 54 year-old jockey Bill Shoemaker were in front by the top of the stretch

1985-Spend A Buck-won gate to wire in blitzing fashion after Eternal Prince failed to contest the early pace

1984-Swale- got to the front by the top of the stretch with jockey Laffit Pincay Jr.

I hate betting favorites, but I think Nyquist will gate to wire the Derby. Even if someone rabbits, he has such good early pace, he shouldn't be effected. I think the 3 best closers are Exaggerator, Creator and Brody's Cause. I just don't see any of those 3 being able to keep close enough to Nyquist early to run him down late. I mean, in the San Vicente, he ran a 44.49 for 4f, this is a horse that will be breezing at 1.11.00 or whatever the Derby's pace is for 6f.

Not sure when Trackmaster will have the PP's out, but I think they will bear out what I am seeing looking at the qualifying races.

I have never used the Marathon method, but it is very interesting. I was always told that the mile time was the key factor for the long races. Since I don't think I have ever made money on the Derby, I am certainly not the guy to follow on this one :)

Dan

Extending the streak of winning performances for horses who are close to the lead and closing at the mile mark in the Derby. Nyquist was a head behind in 135.61 which was the fastest mile time by any of the horses prior to the Derby [136.04]

Bill

I think the San Vicente was the key race going into the Derby for both Nyquist and Exaggerator. While I gave Nyquist credit for running 22.5, 44.49, 108.56, and finishing at 1.20.71, I failed to note that Exaggerator ran close to him in that race. If you extrapolate their deceleration from that race, their mile time, assuming a 14 second final furlong would have been 134.71 which would have been a clue that both could run against a 1.35.61 in the Derby. I know hind sight is 20/20 :), but this year, I think it is hard to argue that the San Vicente was an important prep race for the Derby in showing off what the winner and place could do against fast fractions.

Dan

Bill thanks for all your work on the Derby. I loved Nyquist (so did most people) and at 2 to 1 I thought the odds were fair. But I may not have had Exaggerator to finish off the perfecta and trifecta tickets without your hard work.

Really good stuff!

Thanks again, Mike