Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   How best to match just using raw/original times and the entire past performances? (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3157)

mufasa 12-22-2007 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emilio840 (Post 26689)
The horse that has the best power line is the #8.

The #8 also comes out of the fastest pace in its last race.

emilio

I am in total agreement. The #8 horse has the best power line or fastest and is ahead of everyone at the first call and the half. He probably runs early as to this race but in anycase I would pick the #8 horse as my key win and if betting two horses I would go with the #8 and the #10.

Robert

mufasa 12-22-2007 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mufasa (Post 26692)
I am in total agreement. The #8 horse has the best power line or fastest and is ahead of everyone at the first call and the half. He probably runs early as to this race but in anycase I would pick the #8 horse as my key win and if betting two horses I would go with the #8 and the #10.

Robert

Rich, I wonder what you or Jim would say as to my not wanting to pick the last race for #8 as my power line selection. I did not want to hang my hat on a 5.5F race and since I was using all of the pp’s for the #8 horse the 3rd race back was my preferred PL. The last race though makes me feel warm and fuzzy since it was a competitive race against much faster time then my 3rd race back PL but for me the last race is telling me that the horse is still in good condition and can certainly go fast, certainly faster than the 2nd race back it had previously run. I know that with E or EP types you always have to make sure they can get on top of previously run 1st call and half times. That is that they have not gotten slower.
Robert

RichieP 12-22-2007 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mufasa (Post 26694)
Rich, I wonder what you or Jim would say as to my not wanting to pick the last race for #8 as my power line selection. I did not want to hang my hat on a 5.5F race and since I was using all of the pp’s for the #8 horse the 3rd race back was my preferred PL. The last race though makes me feel warm and fuzzy since it was a competitive race against much faster time then my 3rd race back PL but for me the last race is telling me that the horse is still in good condition and can certainly go fast, certainly faster than the 2nd race back it had previously run. I know that with E or EP types you always have to make sure they can get on top of previously run 1st call and half times. That is that they have not gotten slower.
Robert

Your 2 mentioned lines are the ones Jim went to immediately "Mu".

Notice that the last race is fastest pace in the race and the 8 holds position AND beaten lengths from 1c to 2c. Sure sign of a fit and ready horse against TODAY'S matchup ok? Extremely dangerous horse man and one to definitely use the best line showing in the pp's to matchup. LONG SHOT "key indicator".

If you check the "8 month update thread" what I just wrote was described there along with an actual spot play method of utilizing it.

3 races back the horse FIGHTS for TWO calls against a 22- 46. Look at the rest of the field comparing them to what I just wrote. Can anyone stand up to this? The power of the FIGHTER in Jim's mind is also talked about repeatedly in the "8 month update thread".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aspiring matchers:
** Once again please focus your attention to things happening on the LEFT side of the past performance lines of the horses. NOT the right. This is BIG part of Jim Bradshaw's Matchup ***

RichieP 12-22-2007 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emilio840 (Post 26689)
The horse that has the best power line is the #8.

The #8 also comes out of the fastest pace in its last race.

emilio

Absolutely correct on both counts Emilio. :)

simon 12-22-2007 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 26695)
Your 2 mentioned lines are the ones Jim went to immediately "Mu".

Notice that the last race is fastest pace in the race and the 8 holds position AND beaten lengths from 1c to 2c. Sure sign of a fit and ready horse against TODAY'S matchup ok? Extremely dangerous horse man and one to definitely use the best line showing in the pp's to matchup. LONG SHOT "key indicator".

If you check the "8 month update thread" what I just wrote was described there along with an actual spot play method of utilizing it.

3 races back the horse FIGHTS for TWO calls against a 22- 46. Look at the rest of the field comparing them to what I just wrote. Can anyone stand up to this? The power of the FIGHTER in Jim's mind is also talked about repeatedly in the "8 month update thread".
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aspiring matchers:
** Once again please focus your attention to things happening on the LEFT side of the past performance lines of the horses. NOT the right. This is BIG part of Jim Bradshaw's Matchup ***

Richie and Hat Thank you for this lesson I totally missed this race
Yet I learned big time in a live session. This is very giving of you
to teach us in way were we can lose and look a little foolish but its all with a
goal,. That is to teach us to win
Thank YOU!!
RK

RichieP 12-23-2007 11:53 AM

Next step

Throw out all the horses you have marked as either no form or no power line.

Then take remaining horses and match their sprint lines against each other to find the fastest sprinter.

Richie

PS - Emilio - I see your post but don't want to put it up yet ok? Will throw off the focus of the race regarding dealing with sprinters in routes.
ok

simon 12-23-2007 12:49 PM

sprinters
 
Quote:

Next step

Throw out all the horses you have marked as either no form or no power line.

Then take remaining horses and match their sprint lines against each other to find the fastest sprinter.

Richie

Hi Rich

I'm lost Can you guide me

I left out the 8's power line and that seems to be a key in this race

looking at what I have done so far I seem to have messed up

Can you walk me through based on what I have shown ?

sprinters fasted powerlines
Code:

#1 Four    Line 5 6.5 22.8 46.3 113.1 120.2  2 2 3 3
 #8 Saint  line 3 7.0 22.6 46.0 112.5 126.3  1 1 3 4
 #10 Little Line 2 6.0 23.1 46.7 59.1  112.2  5 2 3 3


mufasa 12-23-2007 12:54 PM

Projected Pace times: 22.1/46 1.12.2
Actual Times and corresponding positions:
46.2 1.14.1
#1 2 5

46.2 1.13.0
#3 4 5

46.3 1.11.2
#4 9 7

48.0 1.14.3
#7 2 2

46.0 1.12.2
#8 1 3

47.0 1.13.0
#9 5 6

46.3 1.12.1
#10 4 2

Robert

lsosa54 12-23-2007 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP (Post 26712)
Next step

Throw out all the horses you have marked as either no form or no power line.

Then take remaining horses and match their sprint lines against each other to find the fastest sprinter.

Richie

That would leave me with the following - the 3 and 7 have no sprint power lines so I used routes:

1-P PL5 (although I'm not sure any are real power moves)

22:8 46:3

3-P and S PL2

22:4 46:5 route

7-S or P on DIRT, maybe PL10

23:7 48:1 route

8-E or EP or P PL1 (I had chosen PL2 as the I thought the horse had lost lengths and position in PL1)

22:3 45:1

10-S Maybe PL1 but pretty poor

22:7 47:0

At the 2nd call, obviously no contest, it's the 8.

Question for Rich: Can you give your thoughts as to using PL1 for the 8 with the obviously much faster pace than using the 2nd back, which to me is a better looking "power move"? I suppose PL1 would still be considered "competitive" even though he lost some lengths and positions from 1st call to final call where as in PL2, he gained lengths and position from the first call to fianl call, obviously with a much slower pace? Thanks. Lou.

RichieP 12-23-2007 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragin (Post 26715)
Hi Rich

I'm lost Can you guide me

I left out the 8's power line and that seems to be a key in this race

looking at what I have done so far I seem to have messed up

Can you walk me through based on what I have shown ?

sprinters fasted powerlines
Code:

#1 Four    Line 5 6.5 22.8 46.3 113.1 120.2  2 2 3 3
 #8 Saint  line 3 7.0 22.6 46.0 112.5 126.3  1 1 3 4
 #10 Little Line 2 6.0 23.1 46.7 59.1  112.2  5 2 3 3


ok add the last line on the 8 to what you have shown in the "code box". Then:

1) Look at who ran against fastest pace of race (1c-2c-sc). Identify the horse first in your mind ok? Then:

2) Was the horse competitive in the fast paced race? If you feel he was then THAT is your fastest sprinter. Keep him and throw ALL other sprinters out of the race. If you feel he was NOT competitive look to the next fastest sprinter and repeat process.

Once we have identified the fastest sprinter (remember now this is a route race with sprinters entered) we will then move to the next step ok?

Richie


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