This is a good race for us to look at and one that I have problems with.It's a 6.5 race to be run Thur at CT,there are no shippers that are contenders and everybody has a 6.5 pacelines.I will get screwed up here because a)Im not sure if Prime can wire the field because of the big 2nd fraction of Crafty b)Im not sure if Crafty does get the lead can he hold off Joy.Basically I have it down to those three.Any help on this would be appreciated and if someone would like to do the race with another program feel free to do so.Jeff

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Ct Thurs Race 6
 

Hi Jeff
ok here is the race as I worked it on Energy. first my choice of pacelines:

1-no line
2-last
3-no line
4-last
5-2 back
6-no line
7-last
8-3 back

I removed the # 2 who shows nothing especially in an Early variegated race which I get.

MY problem in this race is while the 7 is a clear choice I am having trouble seperating the 5 and 4 for second bet Jeff. I am getting mixed signals on them. The 5 is showing up 2nd on Paragon A and also 2nd on Exdc Early BUT the 4 has the better Emuv, Uxr and also better Muv readout.

I also have NO real freakin clue with this program but wanted to chime in big brother. I can not resist a race that hasn't run yet. lol

where the heck is Pino when you need him ha? Calling Pino. Avanti :)


My bets:
Exacta box- 4-5-7
Win bets - # 7 and at 2mtp the higher odds of the 4 and 5.

Richie

Richie,Thanks for the input.Jeff

When I did the race on Synergism 4 they had the running styles as everbody early and the 4 as the only late.I know though you cant really go by that.Jeff

Jeff and Richie:

I am wondering why both of you think the 1 Finest is a non-contender. I am just starting the race and the horse seems like it deserves a paceline to me. I have projected the race times to be 23.8 48.0 and 122.4. The horse may be injured, but it should influence the race at least early. Any comments?

Gary

Jeff:

Here is my take on the pacelines for CT, 5/4/06, R6:

#1 - 3rd line - This is a shipper from EVD and LAD taking a big drop. Questionable, but horse did showed that he was reasonably competitive in several recent races that project much faster than today's projected time of 122.4. Strikes me as the type of horse with problems, but maybe some promise at such a low level.

#2 - Last line - Very questionable in my mind because the horse will be too far back to be effective at CT going 6.5. The projected times are just too slow in the middle. Give a line for match-up purposes.

#3 - No line - The owner and trainer are praying for heavy rain. Otherwise this horse looks to be very far back.

#4 - Last line - This horse looks like a real contender and matches well against my projected times.

#5 - 2nd line back - This horse is questionable to me. Will be a little farther back against my projected time of 48.0 compared to both races at CT. Has some closing ability.

#6 - No line - This horse has been running recently against much slower fulcrum times. Will need a miracle.

#7 - Last line - Horse was VERY competitive at 2 of last 3 against today's projected fulcrum time. Horse figures to be on lead after 48.0 in this race.

#8 - Last line - That is the only line of last 3 that projected comparative to today's fulcrum time. Horse looks like he will quit when challenged.

Any comments?

Gary

Jeff: Here is my Energy screen. You will notice that the #1 has a very high Total and is the clear class of the race. This is the point where a handicapper must take a stand. I will hide the #1. If it has 3 good legs it will win. However, it might not have 3 good legs. Gary

Jeff: Here is the velocity screen. It looks like #2 will be too far behind based on F1 to win the race. I will hide #2. Gary