I didn’t lol :p

Todays. recap. 10 of 13 capped
2#1s 2.50,10.00
0 #2s
1#3 8.50
0#4s
7 not top 4 19.80[ls],6.20,12.80,11.40,8.90,61.50,6.10
exotics top 4
0dds
3exs 5.00,91.50,17
2 tris 12.35,6.65
1 super 2.31
0 p3s,4s
A real tough day.
Tim

Thanks Bill. I started off slowly but am picking it up. 7 Winners the last two days. We only count the top choices and I now have 17 in the first 8 days. That includes the jump race today which paid double figures. Looking forward to seeing you soon in Saratoga.

Hi Charlie

That is really fantastic, I wish others here would who post regularly
would do the same and keep a running total of their top 2 selections.

I don't see the value in posting every time a pick 4 or pick 3 is hit
with a 4X4X4X4 or more spread, which would cost $256 or more for a play

What you do is awesome and fun for us Thanks

Bill V:

When I post selections I am following the format established by Lt1: 4 horses and a LS, if any. I don't think anyone in their right mind bets a pick 4 using all 4 horses in each leg -- they call that kind of betting a "caveman" ticket for a reason.

The skill, as Sartin points out, is selecting your bets from your contenders. 2 horses to win (out of 4), maybe a 3 horse exacta box using the "class" horse underneath, etc.

Since you have mentioned you now eschew win bets in favor of horizontal bets, I am sure you realize that judiciously selecting how many horses to bet in each leg of a pick 4 is where the real skill comes into play. You want to go deep in races that are wide open, and keep the numbers small in races that are predictable.

Also, a smart pick 4 player needs to eliminate tickets that have all 4 races with the longest shot contenders. This cuts down on the cost by eliminating combinations that have a miniscule chance of hitting.

Remember, the only reason to play a horizontal bet is when you think it will pay more than a multirace parlay. Those who want to create pick 4 tickets from the selections posted by Lt1 and myself are better off having 4 horses to choose from in each race, especially in those races that are wide open.

Finally, I post selections so that others can see my contenders if they choose to help them craft their own bets. I am not trying to be a selection service, since I use the tote board to craft own my bets. If I wanted to just post winners I would just post the top 3 ML favorites and be done with it.

Richard

Right on
 

Hi Richard

You and Lt do a great job. As you point out, your selections are much more valuable than the ML and public selectors.

Being a pick 4 and pick 5 bettors I just get a little taken back about
recaps that say pick 4's are hit When 4 or 5 horses are included in each leg

You are so correct, the road to ruin is playing "caveman" Pick 4's and pick 5's
When you play horizontals 3 things can happen and two of those things are bad.

1, You lose one of the legs in the series, Goodnight :mad:
2. You win but the payoff is very low because chalk dominates the series
3 You win and hopefully, you have at least 1 double-digit winner

I’m not bad for having the 2 horses I like to win come win at a alarming rate. Hoping after a 20 day cycle, I have a positive record (Lt)

Hi Bill. Let me clear up some of the confusion I may have caused with my recaps. In addition to showing where the winners ranked on my rankings when I post the number of exotics that were in the top 4 choices I am in no way suggesting that I played and hit all of them. What I'm attempting to do is to show that when true contenders with representative pace lines are enter into the program RDSS users have the ability to obtain a decent hit rate on those types of wagers. As Richard stated this is all depended on how tickets are structured. Hope this clears up any misunderstanding I may have caused.
Tim

Saratoga Picks Day #9 7/24/19
Weather: Partly Cloudy 24/75

Here are today’s selections (before scratches):

R1 Jon Kiser Novice Stakes(Steeplechase) 9 SPORTSWEAR 7-2/ 3 BOSS MAN 15

R2: 1 FREAKY STYLEY, 1A CONSTRUCTOR 8-1/ 4 FINANCIALSTABILITY 12-1

R3: 10 BEYOND BROWN 2-1/ 9 DUSTINTHEWING 20-1

R4: 3 SASSY LITTLE LILA 15-1/ 8 KING ZACHARY 15-1

R5: 8 GIANT BOO BOO 6-1/ 1 SURFACE STRIKE 9-2

R6: 10 CHIMNEY ROCK 6-1/ 1 and 1A 2-1

R7 NY Stallion Series?: 5 BIDWILLIE MCTELL 4-1/ 8 SIX PERCENT 9-2

R8 Honorable Miss Handicap: 6 OURS TO RUN 7-2/ 2 CHALON 5-2

R9: 9 MY MISTIQUE 10-1/ 8 VIOLENT TIMES 6-1

R10: 10 PRIVATE BEACH 10-1/ 2 FAIR REGIS 10-1

Best Bet: R3#10
Long$hot: R4 #3

UPDATED PICKS:

R1: 9 scr: 1 REDICEAN (GB) 4-1/ 3 BOSS MAN 15-1

R6: 1,10 scr: 6 CLOSE SHAVE 12-1/ 1 ANOTHER MIRICLE 2-1

R7: 5 scr: 4 ALBIE 15-1/ 8 SIX PERCENT 9-2

Good luck all!