Conversation Between dadams6357 and Lt1
Showing Visitor Messages 1 to 9 of 9
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Tim
When you calculate what MED% you use for a race...how do you break it down?
Do you just break it down by distance only?
Or class distance?
Or class distance surface?
Or class distance surface sex age etc.
I know its christmas Eve...ought to be thinking about other things than Racing?
Thanks
Don...
Still working on it...
When and if I hit the pick six I will send you your Xmas present...
Dont hold your breath...
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Tim
In regards to brisnet Par vs horses spd...example Par for race is 95 and race is on Dirt at
6f.
Would you only consider horses spd that is run on dirt for comparison or would you
consider all bris spds for horse regardless of distance and surface.??
This is in regards to selecting contenders...been watching your video over and over.
Thanks
Don.
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Tim
Do to health problems have been away...question regarding Scott.
Horses running within 21 days of today's race who have a 5-furlong workout in the last 14 days
that earned a bullet or is at a very fast time (:59.4 or less in the East and Midwest and :58.4 or
faster in Southern California.
+
Is that still 21 days or 45 days?
Thanks
Don
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Tim
This is in regards to MED%
I noticed that there are different parameters in regards to ESP.
L has a different % than s sp etc. i have enclosed a list based on gulf stream 8.3 POLY
eg
MED % ESP
GP 66.00 L TO 67.00 L
GP 67.10 S TO 67.70 S
GP 67.80 SP TO 68.20 SP
GP 68.70 EP
69.50 E TO 72.00 E
Did not have enough data on on E and EP
Data was based on 50 available data points.
It would seem to me if you have an L horse that runs a 67.80 you
would throw him out???
What is interesting it goes up in a consistent manner.
I would of posted it but did not know where.
Notice that the % goes up...so it would seem to me that one would have to use
different MED% parameters based on the ESP??
Let me know what you think...I used 2 different time periods so it would seem if you
have like an L ESP It would have to be within the approprite parameters?
Thanks
Don.
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Tim (new yorks finest)
There used to be a cartoon Mr. Wizard with the turtle...and when the turtle would get in
trouble he would start screaming help me Mr. Wizard. Well I am that Turtle...need some feedback.
You have stated on various post that you collect data for your models write information down. etc.
I have a question do you find that your models are changing in a shorter time periods
like weekly etc. Also do you consider class to be important...in other words do you
view alll 8f turf races regardless if there MC or Stakes as running pretty much in a similiar fashion in regards to the variables in RDSS? Like 8f turf races all the same at a
specified track.
Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated Mr. Wizard.
Thanks much
The Turtle.
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Hi Don. The 3rd fraction I use is from the POH screen after contenders are entered.
Tim
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Helllo Tim,,,Was wondering you stated you use 3rd fraction in model...is that taken from the Original screen?
Thanks
Don
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Hi. Almost missed seeing this since I usually get PMS. Anyway. I keep win/place models by surface and dist for each track I play. I use the primary factors from the bl/bl screen, vdc rank, and % med as well as the 3rd fraction of the winning and place horses. I look at TPR to determine the counter energy horse I did at one time keep tabs of the class of the race and total energy but found that I didn't need it. I do note track conditions as well as sex and age but in reality I don't find that much difference at all.
Tim
of the race.
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Just curious in regards to developing models...do you just use dirt/turf/sprint/route?
Is there a way that you include class into your models?
If you expand on your models and how you build them would appreciate it.
It seems to me if you include class...it is gonna take a whole bunch of races...
thanks
don