Big win test

[admin]

Here is a work up test I did
I had a feeling from somewhere that all my early horses
always faded. I asked if the early pressure or lack of it
made a differance and could my early horses go wire to wire

My test is to find 20 wire to wire winners that opened
big leads, That is over 1 BL at the first call and over 2 BL
second call, What happens to the final speed rating
on both the original and adjusted speed ratings ?

Here is the result of my test
Almost always The big win easy lead race is a once in
the past performance history of the horse.
The speed ratings is almost always the highest one it shows in
its history, It was only 20 races but I saw many horses
that this race messed them up They never were the same after
Many don't even get a lead at all after the race. and they slow down
in there speed ratings

Here is the work up
Big openings -Races were winner had a +1 lead at the first call
and a +3 BL win at the 2nd call and went wire to wire

#1 +3 Normal 93 orginal Highest ever 91 adjusted
#2 +4 Highest ever 61 0rg Highest 75 on Ajusted
#3 +3 Highest ever 73 speed rating original Normal 76 adjusted
#4 +2 Highest ever 81 on both screens
#5 +1.5 Highest ever 81 on both screens
#6 +3 Highest ever 83 on Org. 85 on Adj.
#7 +2 Hihest ever 91 on Org. 79 on Adj
#8 +3 Not highest ever 63 but has not raced near that in the last 7 races
since then 38,55,0,39,0,42,26 speed ratings
#9 +6 Not highest 99 on Org but Highest 86 on Adj.
#10. +3.5 Highest ever 95 Org Slowed way down to below normal 75 on Adj
#11 +3 Normal 88 on Orig Normal 85 on Adj,
#12 +5 had a 106 earlier. In this race had a 101 but again since than
speed ratings 90,98,90,98,79
#13 +2 Highest ever 72 on Org. Very normal 66 on adj
#14 +4 highest ever 68 org, 77 adj.
#15. +2 Normal 49 original and 58 Adjusted
#16 +6 High 90 org. Norm 81 Just held on. This horse also lost a 10 BL lead
#17 +5 High 89 org. Highest ever 83 on adjusted
#18 +2.5 2nd Best 85 org Normal 77 adjusted
#19 +2.5 Normal 74 org Highest 81 Adjusted
#20. +9 Highest 82 org. and 2nd highst 82 Adj.

[RichieP]

This is a VERY important workup in my opinion Bill. For "Form" matchers as well as "software" matchers.

Hat took 2 MONTHS to get across my thick skull the importance of paying attention to the leads the earlies had at the first call Bill.

He KNOWS that big early EASY leads are NOT the kinds of lines you want to use to evaluate a horse. YOUR work here confirms this!

Thank you:)

Richie

[gl45]

Finally a post that deserve some attention. We need new ideas..lets get away from the usual boring same posts.
Can you elaborate on the concept.
Good job Bill
lbj

[admin]

Rich . The test was a pleasure As i did it I thought of the days when we
worked together at the meadowlands. I want so bad to improve
I did the test, I learned and I am so greatful that you asked me to do
something myself knowing that it would teach me better

GS
Bill

Da quando o fatto la tua conoscenza, e siamo diventati amici fedeli, tutte le cose felici che sono accadute nella mia vita le devo a te.

[gl45]

PM in english so I can exactly translate
lbj

[Houndog]

Bill, your study confirms what has been a problem for me in the past. Putting a horse's line in any of the programs that gets an easy lead and is never challenged makes the horse look like a monster on the readouts.

When I first started with the Sartin Methodology I did this way to often, and most of these types of horses were losers. Your post ties in with what Jeff stated in a previous post, and you backed it up with hard facts.

Thanks for sharing this information with us as it should help to avoid many potential losers.

[THE HAT]

Bill

This is a very good test, it will help everyone.

The Hat

[Jonathan Steele]

"Can you elaborate on the concept."

I second that. I also don't (exactly) get your point. Please clarify.

Thanks, Bill.

Jon :D

[admin]

Jon
here is the example I made after the first test
http://bindfold.com/forums/showpost.php?p=22812&postcount=1

I will do it again here

Here is a horse from EVD Sat 8/18

I see in race 5 it opened a big easy lead in the first fraction 1.5 BL
and opened up to 3 BL in the 2nd fraction
Its final Speed rating was on the original screen its highest ever
showing speed rating 81

on the adjusted screen its also the highest ever showing speed rating
of 80

So I would think after doing this test again and again
that If I am doing a race and Quick Switch Jimmy is in it
unless he is a lone early or the other E horses are way to slow
at the first fraction I better not use that line, If the better
other than earlys run 80 + speed ratings

hope this helps clear up the test

I was using lines like line 5 and the horses were not winning

GS
Bill

[mufasa]

Response to post #9

Thanks Bill for your very useful big win on the lead test. This proves what has been said so many times before especially by “The Hat” and Doc Sartin and others as to this often seen occurrence.

You know in your example with the #10 horse, Quick Switch Jimmy, the equalized-normalized-adjusted pace call times are so misleading that they are rendered useless IMO. According to the data on races 5 & 6 for horse #10 one could be led to believe that in a sprint (today’s 7F) in could win after a 46.1 (5ths). The first ¼-mile times are similarly distorted as to win potential at adjusted times. If you look at the original data a win off of anything less then a 48.1 is not happening as of the last 10 pace lines.

I have no confidence working with the equalized-normalized-adjusted pace call times especially as to the Match Up methodology but they seem to do well as to the RDSS/Spec160 BLBL outputs. The BLBL will get you winners in all price ranges but my favorite of course is the bombs that come in every once in-a-while. For example, Del Mar had such a bomb just yesterday in the Summer Stakes contest ($48 dollar winner). There must be something in that good old chaos math that makes everything considered just right. Thank you Doc!!!!

Robert

[lsosa54]

Very helpful, Bill. Even if they don't win in the race they got the easy lead, it tells you something. Here's one from yesterday at DMR - easy lead all the way through in his last with his highest lifetime speed figure.

There were a couple of mainstream reasons why this horse's chances were not good and he was not bet - actually went off at 17.5 to 1. Never, ever got close to the lead and ran 8th basically the whole way.

[RichieP]

Hat took 2 MONTHS to get across my thick skull the importance of paying attention to the leads the earlies had at the first call Bill.

He KNOWS that big early EASY leads are NOT the kinds of lines you want to use to evaluate a horse. YOUR work here confirms this!
Richie

Just to clarify:
Jim says we HAVE to evaluate the horse to see if it can get that type of easy lead in TODAY'S race.

Also does he NEED this easy lead in order to win or can he FIGHT other horses for the lead and still win.

Richie
PS - watch for Jim's analysis of the 6th race at Saratoga in the "Power Line" thread later today.