Nov 11, 1AQU Claiming 35K

[Ted Craven]

Here is an interesting race from yesterday Nov 11 at Aqueduct. Race #1 8f Claiming 35,000. I'll show how I analysed this race in RDSS, using some of the Match Up tools as well as energy analysis. (Scratch the 1A)

First I scanned all the horses' Past Performances looking for Early horses. Along the way, I assigned Running Styles (though I am still learning that, I'm better at it than the program is right now).

Here is the 1st Early

[Ted Craven]

Here's another Early

[Ted Craven]

Here's the other Early, though it wins also as an EP. Though Perceptor ranked its last line as the best, I picked all 4 of it's winning route lines to see what 1st and 2nd call times it handled.

Matching the #9 and the #8 to the #5, these Early horses cannot get the lead from #5, so I'll eliminate them in subsequent screens.

[Ted Craven]

Now for the rest of the horses. #1 is a Sustained sprinter, an unlucky combination, but pay attention to the very fast POR times it ran against.

[Ted Craven]

#2 is an Early Presser, not wild about recent form...

[Ted Craven]

#3 is an Early Presser or Presser. Though not his best line, I think he'll more likely run like his 6th line, so I used that to represent him.

[Ted Craven]

#4 a Presser.

[Ted Craven]

#6 ran in 3 Tandems, as shown by its Tandem screen. Both times it beat #7. Once it was beaten by #2. I'll use Tandem #2 to represent #6 (and also #7)

[Ted Craven]

#7 A Presser of some kind. Tandem screen shows it was beat twice by #6 and once by #2.

[Ted Craven]

The Analyses screens give an overview of the contenders as well as a (somewhat) familiar energy distribution analysis. On the Original screen (upper), the Running Style column (RS) shows what collection of runners we have. The E horse #5 can get the lead from the other Earlies, slow down a bit, and no one else can catch him: he may go wire to wire.. The #1 Sustained Sprinter against faster POR than the Early horse may be given some energy credit for the positions he gained. The Tandem numbers next to the track code remind us that the #6 and #7 ran against each other. The highlighted horse names are links back to each horse's Past Performance for further investigation.

If the BL/BL screen were working, we'd look there, but it's not yet, so the Perceptor screen shows some of the same thing. Different from Speculator, I show the horse owning the best (or 100%) number in any factor column as 0.0, so we can more easily see how close or far away its competitors are. Same information, different presentation. The Perceptor Total Rank is the same. Here we see the #5 and #2 are the 2 most Early energy distribution, while the #1 is the counter-energy. The same information is shown in raw form on the Primary factors screen (TPRs), also showing that of the 2 earliest energy horses, the #5 had much the better Total Energy, or CPR.

Interesting confirming evidence of the Match Up from an energy distribution analysis angle.

[Ted Craven]

Here is the final result - a most satisfying one. I have more work to do yet on the various factor screens, adding more ranks, some colour-coding and some graphs, where useful. So far, I'm enjoying the summary of the horses' running styles and its ability to help me see race shape.

Thanks for reading, and please feel free to ask any questions or make comments.

Ted

[admin]

Ted
Excellent work with your great program
I hope to be able to work with it soon
Here is the happy results from your Val2006
MY bets were 5 and 7 :)
GS
Bill

[shoeless]

Nice job guys.Jeff

[admin]

Thanks Jeff
It was the start of a great day
It must have been the pep talk we had
Saturday morning
It was great to chat with you on the phone
Bill

[shoeless]

Bill,It was nice for me as well glad you had a good day.Jeff

[Turbulator]

Ted,

I don't understand why you used early lines for the 6 and the 2 when you defined them as pressers or early pressers.

Correct me where I'm wrong, but shouldn't you have used lines defining their running style rather than lines showing them taking the lead?

[Ted Craven]

Steve,

Perhaps you're right that it is more rigourous to choose a paceline demostrating it's predominant running style. In my own handicapping, I make use of the incremental energy information shown by Primary Line Score (i.e. BL/BL or Perceptor) and Early/Late energy, in addition to what I'm learning about matching horses to identify contenders, so I wanted to use the best line for those 2 horses, as identified by Line Score.

In this match up, it probably would not have made much difference using a 2nd best line, demonstrating their typcial running style, but in this collection of screen shots I also wanted to show the Tandem screen and how the #6 was brought into contention by its Perceptor ranking.

I recall something like that as my thought process, but others' mileage will vary...

yours,

Ted