M4$ Feb27 Challenge5 (PeteC)

[The Pook]

Challenge5

[PeteC]

Let's go out west to Capcondo's neck of the woods, Turf Paradise. The 7th is a two-turn 7.5 furlong turf race with a field of 9. Post time is 3:30 local, 5:30 east coast and 2:30 west coast.

[Bill V.]

my look

Running Styles

Early 8 6
EP 1
SP 4 7 9
Sus 5 2 3

Fulcrum #4 87EP

My look The 1 is the 9/5 ML fav
should be a pest to the 8
The 6 and 8 cancel each other out.
The 8 could go wire to wire
I like the 7 but although the works are good
320 days is a long layoff

If I had to bet my top choice is #4
my "could" win is the 8
but I have no feel for this one.
Pass

39600

[Capcondo]

Nice Race Pete.

Thanks for putting this up. On first pass, it looks like the 8 and 6 are the speed with the 1 right behind. But, I think there is more speed than that. The 4 runs his best races near the lead and the 12 year old gelding the 7 will be much closer off a long layoff.

I'm looking for a pace at the about distance of 22.4 45.4 for the first two calls and I'm looking for a sustained horse.

This leaves me with the 3 and the 9. The 3 was ahead of the 9 in the last race.

The 3 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

[Pat C.]

I see this running OTE because the #6 should press the #8 hard for the first 2 calls and the #8 needs a clear lead to win. Can't decide between the Pressers #3 & #7 or the Sustained #9. Any of the three could win. Believe I will pass this time.

[The Pook]

TUP 7

Two earlies, 8 and 6. I think the 6 will be trouble for the 8 and the 8 post is hard at this distance for a need to lead. With a projected 23.1/46.5/110.6 I am left with the 3,4,7 that have handled this pace from off. 7 has been away for a while but has shown an ability to be competitive with a layoff. So I am going all OTE this time. Unless something weird happens odds wise I will go with these.

7,4

Pook

[cigar]

Pace:23.4 - 47.8
Contenders: 1-2-3-4-7
OTE
Win: 3-4

Sorry for the lack of write up - cheers for Grand Cayman Island

[mowens33]

I will go with the 8 to steal this race, should be better 2nd back
The one should get first wack.
My Picks 8 and 1

[PeteC]

The 2 earlies are the 6 and the 8.I’m projecting a 46.4 111.1 off the last line of the 6. The 8 used to be able to do 46 and still go on and win but not lately. I don’t see either surviving so I’m looking OTE.

1- Should be sitting third behind the 2 earlies. Has only faced today’s pace way down in line 10. I feel this one is going to get caught up in the pace with the other two…OUT
2- Faced a faster pace in line 10, where it made a mild move to finish 4th by 3. I’d like to see more than that…OUT
3- No races here against today’s pace, also beaten by two horses in a slower tandem race last time…OUT
4- 2nd by a nose against today’s ½ mile pace. Also won against today’s ¾ mile pace in line 7. Has done well from 6th position which could be the best spot today…IN
5- One turf route against a similar pace, ugly and OUT

7 3 wins against similar or faster pace. The 12 yo is coming back off of a layoff since last spring and is a true hard knocker…..IN
9- never faced quite this fast a paceand has won from 9 or 10 lengths back at first call. Probably a bit too far back today…OUT

So I’m down to the 4 and 7...I will take them both to win..

[The Pook]

Ohhhh....Tim and Cigar I thought you guys had that. Would have been a good score. Looks like Mike takes home the consolation prize.

Pook

[The Pook]

I mean really the 3 looked like he had it. Look at the replay!

[PeteC]

A desperate finish after the fast early pace. Heartbreak city for the guys with the 3. The top 5 finishers separated by little over a length. Congrats to Mike for the only winner of the week...